It is being reported that:

The London-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Hayat reported Saturday that “Washington has information according to which Israel gave Damascus 72 hours to stop Hizbullah’s activity along the Lebanon-Israel border and bring about the release the two kidnapped IDF soldiers or it would launch an offensive with disastrous consequences.

Foxnews (from AP) is reporting:

JERUSALEM — A missile fired by Hezbollah, not an unmanned drone laden with explosives, damaged an Israeli warship off Lebanon, the army said Saturday. Elite Iranian troops helped fire the missile, a senior Israeli intelligence official said.

One sailor was killed and three were missing.

The intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information, said about 100 Iranian soldiers are in Lebanon and helped fire the Iranian-made, radar-guided C-102 at the ship late Friday.

The official added that the troops involved in firing the missile are from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, an elite corps of more than 200,000 fighters that is independent of the regular armed forces and controlled directly by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Initial information indicated the guerrillas had used a drone for the first time to attack Israeli forces. But the army’s investigation showed that Hezbollah had fired an Iranian-made missile at the vessel from the shores of Lebanon, said Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan.

“We can confirm that it was hit by an Iranian-made missile launched by Hezbollah. We see this as very profound fingerprint of Iranian involvement in Hezbollah,” Nehushtan said in an interview with The Associated Press. 

I have always wondered about the difference between Israeli intelligence and U.S. intelligence.  How can Israel get the rapid, accurate and meaningful intelligence that they do in a region of the world that hates them so deeply?  Why can’t the U.S. do the same thing?  Israel relies on intelligence to keep their nation secure, and so their future depends on it.

Does the future of the U.S. depend any less on getting good intel with feet on the ground?  In fact, if we are at war with Iran (by proxy, because Iran is the terror-master in the middle east as Michael Ledeen has always been quick to point out), why don’t we know more than we do about where they are with their weapons programs?

Update posted on July 20, 2006.  Stay tuned.  Coming soon to the Captain’s Journal are our own proposed plans for war with Iran.  The Defense Department plans discussed below will fail.  Included will be the outline for a comprehensive strategy, justification and intended results.

**** SCROLL FOR UPDATES **** 

It is pretty much universally acknowledged that (a) Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, and (b) Iran is behind not only the existence of Hezbollah, but also the kidnappings of the Israeli soldiers and therefore the current situation in the middle east.  Iran has been conducting war by proxy since the creation of Hezbollah with the help of Syria, and for some reason, Ahmadinejad has chosen this point in time to start a war.  He also doesn’t seem to be too troubled by any response he might receive from Israel or the U.S.  His bluster and threats shows that he believes Iran to be immune from a successful retaliatory strike from Israel (and it would seem that he believes the U.S. to be too hamstrung by lack of intelligence and/or political baggage at home to act decisively in the middle east).  On at least some of this, he might appear to be correct.

Seymour Hersh over at The New Yorker did a fascinating piece back in April entitled “The Iran Plans.”  In this very good piece, we learned that there has been fairly directed planning to knock back the nuclear infrastructure in Iran with a bombing campaign, supplemented if necessary by special operations at specific nuclear sites.  While I don’t doubt that planning has been and is underway, I was skeptical when I read this: it is prima facie absurd to walk into this with an illusions of victory without a high cost (politically and militarily).

Here was my thinking.  We will likely not use tactical nuclear weapons.  The world will be outraged, especially if we attack using nuclear weapons without first having irrefutable evidence of a nuclear program.  An attack of this nature invariably destroys the evidence we need.  The Iranians have had a chance to study our conventional capabilities in Afghanistan, and have buried their centrifuges deep enough that we cannot effect them.  In fact, I would predict that the facilities are deep enough under ground to avoid destruction — with some safety margin.  If I was the engineer responsible for designing the defense features of the facilities, that is what I would do.

So what is really needed are boots on the ground.  I have serious doubts that there is any foolish planning for regime change or occupation of Iran at the Pentagon.  If the U.S. actually goes into Iran, it will be to retrieve centrifuges and weapons-grade fissile material.  The Army is too slow and lumbering to place inside Iran (with the possible exception of the 82nd and 101st Airborne; but use of them would be disastrous for reasons that would take me far afield).  There aren’t enough special forces operators for this to be exclusively a special forces war.  Therefore, the Marines have to do it.  They are designed for rapid, mobile and intense warfare with no support from anyone but the Marines (i.e., the MEU).

Now.  Proceeding from here, there is no way to get Marines to the sites that they need to be at.  For example, the primary enrichment site — Natanz — is about 250 miles from the border with Iraq and 450 miles from the border with Afghanistan (see here for map).  Many other potential nuclear sites are just as far, if not further, from either border (or the Persian Gulf).  The primary method of transport to hot zones, the helicopter, hasn’t the range to get Marines to these sites.  The new MV-22 (the Osprey) has a range of 242 nautical miles carrying 24 troops (using a conversion of 0.869 nautical miles to miles, this is 278 U.S. miles).  It is possible, though not likely, that we would choose this method of transport, if the Osprey could carry more troops.  This capacity is not enough.  Moreover, the MV-22 is not quite ready for service and there aren’t enough of them.  The target date for deployment is early 2007.

But then again, what is needed to stop the nuclear program is to set up a temporary perimeter around the nuclear sites, remove the fissile material if there is any, take the centrifuges, and then get out.  If bombing alone will not work, there aren’t enough special forces to do it, and there is no way to get enough special forces or Marines there to begin with, then what about all of this war planning with Iran?  How will this come off?

This was my thinking when I first read Hersh’s first article.  Fast forward to just a few days ago, and Seymour Hersh has posted another interesting piece entitled “Last Stand: The military’s problem with the President’s Iran policy.”  A whole host of problems are becoming apparent to the military planners and strategists, and an apparent mini-war is going on in the Pentagon and State Department over if and just how such a thing as an attack on Iran would come off.

A senior military official told me, “Even if we knew where the Iranian enriched uranium was—and we don’t—we don’t know where world opinion would stand. The issue is whether it’s a clear and present danger. If you’re a military planner, you try to weigh options. What is the capability of the Iranian response, and the likelihood of a punitive response—like cutting off oil shipments? What would that cost us?

While at Parris Island a few months ago to see my son graduate from boot camp, I saw my son look at something he called a sand pit.  He looked with loathing, and I had recalled that his letters to us discussed something he called being “pitted.”  Not knowing the full story, I thought I might take a picture of it and have it for a discussion topic later on.

I recall driving on to the Island and getting out of the car to have it searched.  As soon as we got out we were molested by something they lovingly call sand fleas.  My forearms were bloody when I finally got back into the car, and we found out that the molestation didn’t stop in the car.  Hundreds of sand fleas had made their way into the car while the doors were open.

Well, the sand fleas are especially bad in the sandy areas.  The picture below is a “sand pit,” and to be pitted means to go to the sand pits and do PTs (you know, running in place, crunches, pushups, etc.).  One especially bad day (his unit just couldn’t do anything right that day), the drill instructor took them away from “their” sand pit (which is the picture below), and to the sand pits belonging to the other units.

In all there are more than 60 sand pits on Parris Island.  That day Daniel’s unit started at their own sand pit, and ran to the next, and then to the next … you get the picture.  They went to and did PTs in 60+ sand pits on Parris Island that day.  The only one they didn’t get the privilege to PT in was the drill instructor’s sand pit.

That day the platoon spent the entire day in the pits doing PTs.  So one day in the future when you (i.e., civilians like me) think you have had an especially bad day, just think: Things could be worse.  I could have been pitted at Parris Island all day with the sand fleas sucking my blood.

***** SCROLL FOR UPDATES ***** 

Continuing developments in the far east.  First, Seoul denounces Japanese Cabinet:

“It is nothing other than a grave situation that Japanese Cabinet ministers repeatedly raised the possibility of launching pre-emptive strikes and the justification of armed actions on the Korean Peninsula,” presidential spokesman Jung Tae Ho was quoted by Yonhap News Agency as saying. 

What a strange world we live in.  North Korea launches missiles over Japan, Japan then discusses the right of self defense, and then South Korea denounces Japan.  Get the order?  Again, N. Korea launches, Japan talks self defense, S. Korea denounces Japan.

South Korea has relied on U.S. troops to be the defense against Kim Jong Il for many years now, and essentially caves to N. Korean pressure by denouncing Japan.  Is South Korea anything but a lap dog?  Want more?

North Korea has walked out of the “negotiations.”  South Korea has frozen aid to the impoverished North Korea as a result of the launches:

PUSAN, South Korea (Reuters) – North Korea stormed out of talks with South Korea on Thursday and Seoul froze food aid to its impoverished neighbor, as regional fissures over how to deal with Pyongyang’s missile tests widened.

Pyongyang also appeared to have stood up to its closest ally, Beijing, which has sent a “friendship delegation” to North Korea.

“So far they don’t seem to be interested in listening, much less doing anything,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told reporters in Beijing. “I think the Chinese are as baffled as we are.”

I still don’t buy this about China being powerless or “baffled.”  But regarding South Korea, can someone tell me why they have been supplying aid to their enemy — the ones sworn to recombine the Korean peninsula?

Finally, after thinking about it, I still hope that all this talk about sending in a few Japanese fighters to take out missile sites is just that — talk.  Japan needs to rearm itself, go nuclear and then effect whatever defensive posture it feels that it needs.  I still think that it is not currently ready.

***** UPDATE *****

The Strategy Page has this (Japan has the right to a preemptive strike):

Japan has a stronger military than it advertises. In May, 2003, it quietly launched the first or a series of spy satellites into orbit, the better to keep tabs on potential threats like North Korea. Ignoring North Korean threats of “disastrous consequences,” Japan successfully launched a rocket carrying two military spy satellites, giving the island nation its own space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capability. Tokyo is also accelerating development of missile defenses, building its commando forces, and working on creating an in-flight refueling capability for its fleet of F-15 aircraft, which would give them the ability to strike North Korea on a large scale. There is even a suggestion from some in the Japanese government that the country should build nuclear weapons – a call that may be heard more loudly now that North Korea is threatening to launch its own nukes at neighboring nations. A second set of satellites was subsequently launched. The four orbit at an average altitude of 500 kilometers, allowing Japan to photograph any part of the world at least once a day. The satellites carry optical- and radar-imaging capabilities, and it would be surprising if they did not also possess at least some electronic-intelligence capabilities. The Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force has approximately 45,800 sailors, 146 warships, 179 airplanes, and 135 helicopters. Its fleet is divided into four flotillas, each around a 7,200-ton Kongo-class guided missile destroyer with AEGIS-capable surface to air missiles. The Kongos carry the SPY-1D AEGIS radar. The four Escort Flotillas have 2-3 air warfare ships and 5-6 anti-submarine destroyers, plus ASW helicopters. The JMSDF also fields twenty-three other guided missile destroyers, a number of gun-only destroyers and escorts, and 17 modern diesel-electric subs, perfectly suited for warfare in the Sea of Japan. In possibly confronting North Korea, Japan’s Air Self Defense Force has 46,000 airmen and force of over 330 combat aircraft, including F-15J/DJs, F-4E/EJs, F-2A/Bs, and F-1s. That Japan – a nation traditionally and strictly limited to a defensive military since 1945 — has so publicly declared its intention to “get buffed” and not be cowed by a rogue state is an interesting turn of events in an age of asymmetric warfare.

Maybe I’m wrong about Japan not being ready to make a preemptive strike.  However, it still seems to me to be prudent to go nuclear before anything like this happened.  Going nuclear would cause pause to China in any potential response it might make over North Korea being attacked by Japan.

I have received this press release from Joseph Casas:

Hamdania: Press Release from Legal Counsel Joseph Casas

Representing PFC John J. Jodla III

July 11, 2006

“Perplexing Lack of Official Cooperation in Hamdania Case”

* Today is day 60 of confinement for PFC Jodka and the rest of the Pendleton 8.

* We have requested tons of evidence and have received nothing but the preliminary investigation – we have yet to get a full autopsy report.

* We’ve made several key expert/investigator requests and a site visit request – all of which are still unanswered … yesterday we requested a status on our requests and I have yet to receive a reply.

* The grave concern is that we have an Article 32 in early August (either week 1 or week 2) to prepare for and we don’t have what we need to defend this case.

* To make matters worse, appointed military defense counsel is out of the area (in 29 palms) and most of the military defense counsel are being recalled to active duty (i.e., reservists), out of area, and don’t have a place to work out of.  If the military is going to appoint defense counsel to assist the civilian counsel, then they can’t just do so using smoke and mirrors, they must appoint defense counsel that can truly assist in the defense.

* Time is of the essence in this case, the Marines are facing the death penalty!

Joseph N. Casas, J.D., M.B.A.

Casas Law Group, P.C.

Attorneys & Counselors at Law

www.casaslaw.com

End of Press Release, beginning of my comments.  This is all still current with the caveat that Casas has been contacted by the prosecutors who have told him that they are working on his requests.  Overall, my impression of all of this is that this is just plain wrong.  I keep hearing that the military justice system is the best on earth.  The military will not allow the guilty to go unpunished nor the innocent to be punished.  They are the fairest of the fair.

Well, tell me when all of this fairness starts.  Is there a date that I should be on the lookout for?  Good grief!  Legal wranglings begin soon and no one from the defense team has been able to get to the scene of the alleged crime (through no fault of their own).  How do you properly defend a case like this?  How do you take pride in a system that so far has given the defense nothing, not even an opportunity to see Hamdania?

Well, looky here!  Surprise, surprise.  Cooperation between Iran and North Korea.  I am sure that both Iran and North Korea need the missiles and nuclear technology to protect themselves against all of those threats (you know, Kuwait’s threats against Iran, and Liechtenstein’s threats against N. Korea).

In another post I made a few days ago, I criticized the MSM for failure to go into Ramadi (while I also sent people to another Michael Fumento article), saying they were too cowardly to do it.  Someone (incredibly) came to the defense of the MSM, and an argument ensued, until, that is, Michael Fumento weighed in.  He brought the argument to a swift and decisive conclusion, saying:

Insofar as I repeatedly noted in my Weekly Standard article that Todd Pitman was with me in Ramadi, it’s hardly a state secret. Todd is a good reporter and courageous, but his one-time stint in Ramadi (he’s back at home in Africa right now) cannot make up for the lack of MSM coverage in Ramadi or other areas outside Baghdad. As I noted in response to a letter to the Weekly Standard, it’s easy enough to google “Ramadi

In another post I made a few days ago, I criticized the MSM for failure to go into Ramadi (while I also sent people to another Michael Fumento article), saying they were too cowardly to do it.  Someone (incredibly) came to the defense of the MSM, and an argument ensued, until, that is, Michael Fumento weighed in.  He brought the argument to a swift and decisive conclusion, saying:

Insofar as I repeatedly noted in my Weekly Standard article that Todd Pitman was with me in Ramadi, it’s hardly a state secret. Todd is a good reporter and courageous, but his one-time stint in Ramadi (he’s back at home in Africa right now) cannot make up for the lack of MSM coverage in Ramadi or other areas outside Baghdad. As I noted in response to a letter to the Weekly Standard, it’s easy enough to google “Ramadi

In followup to my “Liberals Say the Darndest Things” where I summarized the jaw-dropping position of the liberals on North Korea (“its all Bush’s fault”), its nice to hear someone step up and say the truth.  Tony Snow steps up (hat tip to Polipundit):

White House spokesman Tony Snow told reporters that Bill Richardson, who served as United Nations ambassador and Energy Secretary under Clinton, “went with flowers and chocolates, and he went with light-water nuclear reactors … and a basketball signed by Michael Jordan and many other inducements for the ‘dear leader’ to try to agree not to develop nuclear weapons, and it failed.”