Intelligence Bulletin #4
BY Herschel Smith
17 years, 8 months ago
The Intelligence Bulletin is an aggregation and commentary series, and this is the fourth entry in that series.
Intelligence Bulletin #4 covers the following subjects: [1] Petraeus addresses rules of engagement, [2] Iranian nuclear program, [3] Chlorine gas attacks in Iraq, [4] Continued insurgent activity inside Mosques, [5] Iranian and Syrian threats in the covert war, [6] Ongoing coverage of the covert war against the CIA, [7] Continuing coverage of Anbar tribesmen in their battles against AQI, [8] Insurgents use women and children as shields, [9] Sadr’s Long Game, and [10] Thoughts on Walter Reed scandal.
Petraeus Addresses Rules of Engagement
Glenn Reynolds informs us of a communication by General Petraeus to his reports concerning rules of engagement.
Rules of engagement (ROE), highly criticized as being too restrictive and sometimes endangering our troops, have been “clarified.” “There were unintended consequences with ROE for too long,” Petraeus acknowledged. Because of what junior leaders perceived as too harsh punishment meted out to troops acting in the heat of battle, the ROE issued from the top commanders were second-guessed and made more restrictive by some on the ground. The end result was unnecessary – even harmful – restrictions placed on the troops in contact with the enemy.
“I’ve made two things clear,” Petraeus emphasized: “My ROE may not be modified with supplemental guidance lower down. And I’ve written a letter to all Coalition forces saying ‘your chain-of-command will stay with you.’ I think that solved the issue.”
In our rules of engagement coverage, we have argued for seeing the problems with ROE under four rubrics: The written ROE, the communication of the ROE, the application of the ROE in a counterinsurgency where fighters hide behind the population, and the main stream media feeding frenzy every time another story hits the wires, true or not.
The communication by General Petraeus addresses only one of the four categories above. In our coverage we have cited:
[a] instances where NCOs have given us stories of lack of engagement that ultimately led to U.S. casualties:
… the ROE is vague and limiting. And every time “violations
On March 22, 2007 at 5:23 am, Dominique R. Poirier said:
The following comment relates to Iranian Nuclear Program.
Some facts suggest that international pressure over the Iranian government is paying off. I don’t believe that news about the downturn of activities at the Bushehr plant owes to moves such as deception attempts. Instead it translates the realities of an unmistakable economic upheaval. As I surmised in my previous comment on Iranian moves and behavior, the Iranian ruling elite is most probably fully realizing that it is now struggling for its own survival.
As a way of leveraging an illusory national pride, and thus popular support, Iran issued less than a fortnight ago a bank note with a nuclear symbol in a move seen as an assertion of its national will in the face of international sanctions over its insistence on enriching uranium. The new note for 50,000 rials — worth about $5.40 — also reflected rising inflation, a fact that has brought criticism of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s policies. It is worth more than twice the previously highest denomination note.
More details about this event may be found here:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2007-03-12-iran-note_N.htm?csp=34
From then on, we may now wonder for how long Iran will find her interest to further influence and logistic assistance to insurgency in Iraq and Lebanon, and to terrorist activities when there are growing preoccupying issues at home. Nonetheless I believe that the perspective of possible and unexpected Iranian sponsored terrorist activities abroad must not be underestimated as long as this ruling elite is still in power.
Latest news on Russian attitude about Iranian issues
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8XTx7JiBXaM
and
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070320/ap_on_re_mi_ea/nuclear_iran_7
reinforce this feeling.
Seemingly French are already looking for scapegoats in her own camp as a way of preparing for an honorable exit from the Iranian stage:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070321/bs_nm/total_corruption_dc_4
So, these two last countries, which, for obvious reasons, benefit of first hand information about Iranian domestic issues, are getting pessimistic about the chances of the Iranian ruling elite to stay in power for long. It constitutes, I believe, a reliable indicator.
Of course, all this is quite likely to exert expected favorable influence on our efforts to establish soon peace in both Iraq and Lebanon.