Iraqi Government on the Verge of Powerlessness
BY Herschel Smith
17 years, 6 months ago
In Intelligence Bulletin #3, we said:
… if Sadr returns to Iraq, his arrest or disappearance might incite such a firestorm of problems that the Baghdad security plan is brought to a halt. The Mahdi army doesn’t like even the presence of combat operation posts or bases in Sadr City. Sadr will never be convicted in a court in Iraq, and a show trial that exhonerates him would be the worst of all possible outcomes. The U.S. is tracking the whereabouts of Sadr. Major General William Caldwell said that Sadr was still inside Iran as of 24 hours ago. This seems like a confident report, and assuming its accuracy, it gives lattitude for the appropriate action to remove Sadr from the political and spiritual scene, thus enabling the security plan to succeed. We highly commend the notion of a strategic disappearance of Sadr as one key to the overall success of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
In Iran, Sadr, and Iranian Forces Deployed Throughout the Middle East, we said:
At the standdown of the surge and security plan, Sadr will return to Baghdad, heavily guarded, to women crying and waving their scarves in the air, and men shooting their AK-47s and and swearing to kill on command. Sadr will be received back as not just a hero, but as someone almost divine, who stood down the U.S. Any capture of Sadr and turnover to the courts of Iraq would have the opposite outcome of that intended, because no Iraqi court will convict Sadr of crimes, thus exhonerating and codifying him in his rule of his followers.
Iran will then have their forces deployed in Lebanon, headed by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and in Iraq, headed by Moqtada al Sadr. Only confident actions by the administration – rather than acquiescence by the State Department – will avert such an outcome. The Brits would rather “de-escalate,
On June 8, 2007 at 7:31 am, Dave said:
EXCELLENT IDEA – Sadr’s “strategic disappearance”. Without Hitler there would have been no holocaust or continuance of WWII. Sadr is a “Hitler” of this war. Take him out; and his rabid, powerful leadership is gone. Don’t bring Maliki’s ineffectiveness into the equation. These are independent negative factors of vastly different proportion.