As we discussed in U.S. Intelligence Failures: Dual Taliban Campaigns, Major General David Rodriguez stated that he believed that the Taliban focus on Pakistan would prevent their operation inside of Afghanistan in 2008 – what he called a “spring offensive” (this phrase is well worn, characteristic of conventional operations, and no longer represents the insurgency and terrorist operations developing in Afghanistan).  Using recent open sources, the Captain’s Journal clearly stated that a recent split in the Taliban would cause two “fronts” in the insurgency, one in Pakistan and the other in Afghanistan.

The analysis by General Rodriguez falls in line with NATO’s position regarding Taliban capabilities inside Afghanistan (notwithstanding the issue of a Pakistan front).

NATO says the Taliban insurgency is not spreading in Afghanistan and that 70 percent of the violence last year occurred in only 10 percent of the country, in contrast to more pessimistic pessimistic assessments.

Lt. Col. Claudia Foss, a spokeswoman for NATO’s International Security Assistance Force, said three-quarters of Afghanistan suffered one violent incident per week.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that the insurgent movement is being contained,” Foss said Sunday at a news conference in the capital, Kabul.

Her comments followed a series of darker assessments that said a resurgent Taliban was challenging the U.S. and its allies.

But the analyses by Rodriguez and NATO run contrary to Adm. Mullen’s position (see also PressTV).

Islamic insurgents are expanding their numbers and reach in Afghanistan and Pakistan, spreading violence and disarray over a vast cross-border zone where al-Qaida has rebuilt the sanctuary it lost when the United States invaded Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks.

There is little in the short term that the Bush administration or its allies can do to halt the bloodshed, which is spreading toward Pakistan’s heartland and threatening to destabilize the U.S.-backed governments in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In Afghanistan, U.S. and NATO forces are facing “a classic growing insurgency,” Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Friday.

Gates has recently said that NATO had a very successful year in 2007, and that the increase in suicide bombings was the “manifestations of a group that has lost in regular military terms.”  Yet Gates has also recently approved the deployment of 3200 Marines to Afghanistan.  Whether it is General Rodriguez who disputes the press reports coming from Pakistan concerning the Taliban organization, or Adm. Mullen who sees a classic insurgency growing in contrast to Gates and NATO who believe that the Taliban are losing, the narrative is confused.  There can be no cure prescribed if the ailment is undiagnosed.