There’s been a bit of a kerfuffle going on over the accusations of treason against the purveyors of the deal that sent ownership of Uranium to Vladimir Putin. Jonah Goldberg is up first.
My real objection is to the way people on late-night shout shows and talk radio blithely and irresponsibly throw around claims that our national security was gravely damaged, or insinuate that treason has been committed. It’s neither of those things. Sebastian Gorka’s repeated invocation of the Rosenbergs is dangerous, demagogic, and dippy.
As Shep notes, the uranium the Russians bought can only be sold . . . in America to American facilities. We weren’t giving ammunition to an enemy (an enemy usually only for the purposes of the Uranium One story, by the way) to kill us with nuclear weapons. Russia already has vastly more Uranium than we do. The U.S. has 1 percent of the global reserves of uranium. Russia has 9 percent. So when you hear radio talkers screaming about how Hillary Clinton gave the Russians TWENTY PERCENT!!!!!! of America’s precious uranium supply, they’re talking about one-fifth of one percent of a fairly common metal (Australia has 29 percent of the known uranium reserves).
In fact, one way you can tell if a commodity is rare is by looking at its price. Gold today is at a bit under $1,300 per ounce. Rhodium, mostly used in things like catalytic converters is around $1,400 per ounce. Platinum (which I always thought until this morning was more expensive than gold) is around $1,000 bucks per ounce. Uranium? It sells for less than $25 bucks – per pound.
To underscore his derision, he embeds a video by Shep Smith who relies mainly on MSM reporting and then displays his own derision for the scandal.
So let’s take a shallow dive into the facts – a deep dive will likely lose most readers. We are no longer enriching weapons-grade Uranium or Plutonium (or creating Tritium, but I’ll get to that in a moment). Even the Reliable Replacement Warhead program doesn’t do that. Despite this conflated and rambling entry at Global Security, the program to date consists mainly of calculations performed to demonstrate that what we have will still work despite decay.
At some point in the future the piper will come playing and he must be paid. We can only kick the can down the road for so long. Before that happens, if we have any sense at all, we will have begun a new weapons program. When that happens, the price and availability of raw material matters. What Jonah cited is yellowcake, not weapons grade material.
This material must be enriched a great deal to fissile isotopes like U-235 (not fissionable, like U-238) or Pu-239. That requires industrial and reactor operations (separation and transmutation). We don’t get a pound of weapons grade material for every pound of yellowcake removed from the earth. In fact, we don’t get very many at all.
Furthermore, this enrichment must occur just to be able to operate commercial nuclear reactors, and I consider their operation vital to national security (try living in America without the electricity supplied by commercial nuclear power). Most fuel assemblies loaded into commercial nuclear reactors today are enriched to 4% – 5% by weight U-235. Fuel assemblies aren’t light. Each one typically contains just below half a metric ton of enriched Uranium (0.45 – 0.5 MTU). Hundreds get loaded into commercial nuclear reactors every year. For this enrichment to occur to make operational feasible, we must have many more pounds of yellowcake than what we get out as fissile or fissionable material in commercial nuclear reactors.
There is no indication that Putin would stop with his current level of ownership, or that he wouldn’t find some way to abscond with the raw material via nefarious means. Moreover, with any ownership, one can begin to control pricing and certainly stands to make a handsome profit. Why else would Putin want ownership?
Andy McCarthy seems to admit some level of accuracy to what Goldberg says by replying that “when Jonah says, “The Uranium One story is crap,” I take him to be talking about the story as it is being related by a number of commentators, as if it involved a major national-security crisis. (Note that Jonah is careful to acknowledge that an investigation of the Uranium One transaction might be warranted.) It is true that hyperbole about national security and treason is not helping people’s understanding of what this is about. Uranium One has never primarily been a national-security controversy. It is a corruption controversy with some national-security aspects, which are related to domestic energy supply, not nuclear weapons.”
He’s wrong, and it’s almost a waste of time and air to say that Goldberg and Smith are wrong since they are such lightweights on the matter. We need a reliable and inexpensive source of raw nuclear material for nuclear security, and we also need universities to continue to have and fund nuclear engineering programs. Without commercial nuclear power, there will be no nuclear engineers, and without nuclear engineers there will be no nuclear weapons program. Without nuclear engineers and reactors, there will be no Tritium for weapons, which is created by activation of Lithium, because we won’t be able to create the high neutron flux necessary to make enough Tritium. In order to have these reactors to create the Tritium, we need enriched nuclear fuel.
This is all vital to our national security. There is no further discussion necessary over this question. Better said, there isn’t even a question about it. This isn’t primarily about a scandal, and secondarily about appurtenant national security issues. This is about a scandal that runs so far, deep and wide that certain people would sell out the national security of nation for small payoffs.
Here’s a suggestion for Andy McCarthy. Stay in your own lane. Here’s a note to Shep Smith. You’re a good mouthpiece for your progressive buddies, but some of us know you to be a buffoon and clown, just a talking head who uses unction and a suit to convince people you’re something other than a carnival actor.
Here’s a note for Jonah. All it takes is a little understanding of nuclear science – and I have more than a little understanding – and human nature to know that this is more serious than you indicate in your silly commentary. The next time you decide to play the court jester over some issue, stop and reconsider if you’re tempted to couple yourself to a buffoon like Shep.
If you want to comment on engineering, then go get a degree in engineering. You are unqualified by training, experience or education to make decisions like this on technical matters and issues of national security. It’s like watching a first grader challenge Alvin Plantinga to a debate on concepts of rationality and epistemic warrant. Or watching my granddaughter try to field strip a 1911. When you couple yourself to moronic prose and moronic people, you play the moron.
God help us all when people like Shep Smith and Jonah Goldberg are the “experts” on national security.