Tyranny And Math
BY Herschel Smith
6 years, 7 months ago
AR-15 and AR-10 variants are truly generic and have been sold under more than 120 brand names. The number of ARs (AR-15s, M4s, AR-10s, and variants) sold from 2000 to 2014 was approximately 5,672,900. Since then, AR-15 clones have become even more popular and ubiquitous with approximately 1.2 million more produced in 2015, 1.6 million in 2016, and 1.5 million in 2017. At least 1.2 million will be produced in 2018. It can be assumed that 99% of the ARs produced since the year 2000 are still functional. There were more than 2.3 million other ARs produced for the civilian market between 1962 and 1999. It is safe to assume that at least 95% of those of that vintage are still functional. So the total number of functional ARs in private hands in the U.S. is somewhere around 11 to 12 million. (As of May, 2018.)
Rawles goes on to discuss semi-automatics, pistols, and possible outcomes in the event of a broad, wholesale confiscation effort.
I too think it would be catastrophic for FedGov to engage in such a stupid move. Many people would perish in such a project. That’s why I don’t think it will happen. It won’t go down that way.
What will happen is a nickel-and-dime approach, or if you wish, death by a thousand cuts. For example, if Congress (and the president signs) a ban on semi-automatic weapons, they won’t make it retroactive. But what they will do is ban further production of said weapons, and make it illegal to turn over those weapons in estates. Thus you have an effective gun ban in a generation.
They will force registration of said weapons, and while they won’t go door to door confiscating them if you don’t register them, they will make it illegal to shoot them at ranges without papers. They will force ID and background checks (and perhaps even registration) to purchase ammunition, and enact criminal penalties for allowing your weapons to be stolen (under the rubric of “gun safety laws”).
I could go on, but you get the picture. So what gun owners must be willing to do is stop the process by whatever means necessary when the community deems appropriate.
When does this point occur?
By the way, you should make the Survival Blog a daily stop.
On May 16, 2018 at 12:43 am, Georgiaboy61 said:
Having failed in their frontal assault on gun rights, the would-be banners are now trying a different stratagem – delegitimizing the ownership of firearms as they delegitimized smoking and tobacco products a generation ago. It’s the exact same template, suitably modified for firearms and for the 21st-century.
The other model being resurrected is that of the Chinese Cultural Revolution, of the 1960s and 1970s, wherein Mao and his confederates weaponized the young against the old in mainland China. Sons turning in their fathers, daughters giving up their mothers as insufficiently committed revolutionaries – such events were commonplace. The death toll was between 5-10 million when all was said and done.
The would-be tyrants trying to disarm ordinary Americans are using these models – and are finding compliant youth (and more than a few elderly) to ideal for their purposes.
On May 16, 2018 at 5:50 am, WiscoDave said:
Big difference between USA and China is that we have the means to resist. What waits to be seen is if we have the will.
On May 16, 2018 at 6:10 am, DAN III said:
WiscoDave,
“….we have the means to resist.”
But, do we have the will ?
On May 16, 2018 at 8:32 am, Duke Norfolk said:
The tendency is to think that the govt would embark on a house-to-house confiscation effort, and thus the obvious futility of that. Therefore, we win.
But this is a serious mistake. There are a number of other more sophisticated, insidious, sneaky and frankly chilling methods they could (and I believe would) use. As they’ve done with many white nationalists/”evil nazis”/etc. they can simply start freezing us out of society. Financial institutions, utilities, retailers, and all manner of such institutions. Starving us out, laying siege, and thus making most people give in.
Of course none of this would be done in a fair, equitable way. All manner of errors and injustices would be committed. But when did that ever stop the left?
We have to find ways to counter that and face this reality. That may involve some of Matt Bracken’s scenario of targeting political leaders, etc. I don’t know. But we can’t just be complacent in thinking that brute force confiscation is untenable and therefore gun banning will never be done. That’s foolish.
On May 16, 2018 at 8:32 am, Fred said:
I read the whole thing yesterday.
The Thousand Cuts processes has been well underway for 3 generations now but don’t worry, the NRA will save us.
And this is what bothers me; it’s always some future scenario we will resist. Hey! Gun Confiscation is happening right now without due processes of the law. It’s always some new future line in the sand, again, and again, after every retreat.
It’s already happening!
Somebody, maybe around here, said something to the effect of; They don’t have to take the guns from 200 million people, they just have to take one mans guns 200 million times. They’ve already begun. They have a generational plan. We have fall back positions and stack at the door scenarios.
On May 16, 2018 at 9:03 am, Georgiaboy61 said:
Re: “The tendency is to think that the govt would embark on a house-to-house confiscation effort, and thus the obvious futility of that. Therefore, we win.”
“But this is a serious mistake. There are a number of other more sophisticated, insidious, sneaky and frankly chilling methods they could (and I believe would) use.”
Quite correct – and these efforts are already well-underway. The Communist Chinese are developing what amounts to a social rating system which applies to every area of one’s life. It is not unlike a credit rating, but applies not just to finances. If you color within the lines provided the regime, you get a high score and are permitted to have a job, own a home, and partake in others in wider society. However, if you are a dissident or perceived trouble-maker, with a low social rating, you will be banned from participating in wider society – and will be treated, de facto, as a criminal – even though you may not have committed any crime.
On parallel lines, the ruling elites are pushing hard for a cashless society, one in which paper money will be non-existent or virtually so. Sweden and some other smaller nations are already testing such a system in its early stages. In a cashless society, “money” will be entirely electronic, credits and debits – ones and zeroes – in a database. The same system as China applies: if you please the powers-that-be, your account is permitted to function and you can participate in wider society; if you do not, your account is zeroed out and you must live outside of the system somehow.
That’s the theory anyway, what the elites are counting on.
These Orwellian tools of tyranny, coming to a nation and community near you!
On May 16, 2018 at 10:08 am, Gryphon said:
“Incrementalism” has been the bolsheviks’ M.O. since the beginning of the attempt to Disarm the People… all of the methods of Harassment by bureaucratic means are certainly Possible, but Eventually, it will come down to Enough People refusing or withdrawing from their ‘System’ that Raids for Confiscation will have to take place.
“They will force registration of said weapons, and while they won’t go door to door confiscating them if you don’t register them, they will make it illegal to shoot them at ranges without papers. They will force ID and background checks (and perhaps even registration) to purchase ammunition, and enact criminal penalties for allowing your weapons to be stolen (under the rubric of “gun safety laws”).”
And what happens when those Edicts face Non-Compliance, like in Connecticut and New York? Sooner or Later, the bolsheviks will have to “Make a Move” that will Trigger (pun intended) the Chaos they cannot Control or Win.
I’m beginning to Think (from what I see happening now) that the Increasing Desperation of Anti-Gun efforts is a Sign that the Feral Government is Afraid that some Outside (read economic) Factor is coming, and in order for them to ‘Maintain Continuity of Government’, the People must be Disarmed.
On May 16, 2018 at 11:30 am, Hiram said:
We are all seeing this. Call it nickel and diming, incrementalism… whatever. Read a recent story about a confiscation program in CA – it started small and grew. Now they confiscate weapons from a man with too many tickets.
One way to push back would be to use their own tactics against them. Start demanding repeal of ALL gun laws – “common sense self defense”. I want automatic weapons. I want tanks. I want grenade launchers. Okay, so maybe start with a less aggressive agenda – constitutional carry in all states for starters – there are a plethora of idiotic gun laws needing repeal. Let’s build a list.
On May 16, 2018 at 12:43 pm, DAN III said:
ALCON,
All the whining, begging, imploring and of course ballot box voting, has not and will not protect traditional American citizens from the encroaching communism within the fUSA.
Witness the primary elections in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Four communists, women at that, were nominated to fedgov positions. Only one has a Republican opponent in November.
My belief is simply this….only the untimely demise of domestic communists, tyrants, in and out of government, will save what is left of this once, great nation. If you believe otherwise you are living in La-La Land. A simple example is the most recent anointing of statist and anti-2A scoundrel Oliver North, to be president of the National Rifle Association !
As Thomas Jefferson stated in a 1787 letter to William Stephens Smith: “The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of Patriots and tyrants.”
On May 17, 2018 at 11:37 am, moe mensale said:
“We are all seeing this. Call it nickel and diming, incrementalism… whatever. Read a recent story about a confiscation program in CA – it started small and grew. Now they confiscate weapons from a man with too many tickets.”
One of the problems we gun owners have, in general, is the continual perpetuation of stories that aren’t true. What @Hiram is referring to is CA’s Armed and Prohibited Persons System program. It’s an automated database to help the cops remove guns from people who are convicted felons, have certain mental illnesses or are otherwise deemed to be dangerous. It does not target people with traffic tickets. We lose our credibility when we run around like Chicken Little.
On May 17, 2018 at 6:20 pm, Phil Ossiferz Stone said:
Moe, that is a dangerous loophole that will soon be closed and you know it. Retroactive universal gun registration is the least that Governor Newsom will inflict upon us — and city and county governments are all on board the anti-2nd Amendment train.
https://reason.com/archives/2018/05/15/california-cities-are-free-to-regulate-g