Neither “Private Armies” Nor “Foreign Forces” Are Heading Up The Potomac
BY Herschel Smith
5 years, 1 month ago
Charles J. Dunlap, Jr., writing at The Small Wars Journal.
Recently Professor Mary McCord published an essay in which she rhetorically re-makes the reality of a scattered collection of rag-tag right-wingers who call themselves “militias” into potent “private armies” akin to what she calls “foreign forces prepar[ing] for potential violence.”
Regrettably, Professor McCord‘s essay lacks a sufficient military perspective to adequately gauge the true nature of the threats. While we obviously must be concerned about the risks far-right extremists can pose, her essay counterproductively distorts the threat, imperils civil liberties, and – most troublingly – gives these fringe groups the kind of inflated stature and psychological power they so desperately crave.
Professor McCord cites President Trump’s tweet about a comment controversial Pastor Robert Jeffress made on a news program. Jeffress said: “If the Democrats are successful in removing the President from office (which they will never be), it will cause a Civil War like fracture in this Nation from which our Country will never heal.” Jeffress later said:
“I was not advocating or predicting an actual civil war if Trump is removed. What I said was such removal would cause a fracture in our country like our country experienced after the Civil War. The Civil War ended 160 years ago, and yet the wounds did not completely heal, and I think if you remove a president for the first time in history — a president who received 63 million votes — it will have the same kind of long-lasting impact.”
While Professor McCord doesn’t address Pastor Jeffries explanation, she nevertheless apparently interprets “Civil War like” as meaning, literally, “like” the Civil War in terms of an actual clash of armies. She seizes upon tweets from a right-wing group called the “Oath Keepers” said to be “associated with the white supremacy and militia movements” including one that says in relevant part:
“We ARE on the verge of a HOT civil war. Like in 1859. That’s where we are. And the Right has ZERO trust or respect for anything the left is doing. We see THEM as illegitimate too.”
Although she concedes that “no violence has yet resulted” from the tweets, she still conjures up a physical peril that she likens to hostile ““foreign forces prepar[ing] for potential violence,” and blames Trump for it. As a result, she intimates that the response to what she depicts as “private armies” needs to be one sufficiently militarized as if they were to counter the “violence” that the invading “foreign forces” have the capability to inflict. That goes much too far.
Who are these “Oath Keepers” who worry Professor McCord so much? A news source says it “bills itself as a ‘non-partisan association of current and formerly serving military, police, and first responders, who pledge to fulfill the oath all military and police take to defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic’.” The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) labels the group an “antigovernment movement” founded in 2009 by a Yale law school grad. SPLC says the Oath Takers once “improbably claimed more than 30,000” members, and in 2015 contemptuously characterized them as “boys with big guns crying wolf, and we can only hope they don’t wind up shooting someone by accident.”
I haven’t read Ms. McCord’s essay, and don’t need to. I will offer some analysis of what Mr. Dunlap says though.
Notice first of all that their concern isn’t over the state of social, cultural and religious dissociation ripping asunder the fabric of America, nor of the thugs with Antifa, but over “the threat that far-right extremists pose.”
To analyze these far-right extremists, Dunlap turns to none other than the SPLC, the most laughable, trivial, sophomoric source available, the subject of derision by everyone but the employees of SPLC (and sometimes by the employees themselves). It’s apparently important to Dunlap that the SPLC “contemptuously” characterizes them. As for shooting someone by accident, that’s saved for active duty LEOs, whose negligent discharges are cataloged here.
But for now, let’s continue with the dismissive analysis by Dunlap.
How many “troops” could the “private armies” Professor McCord cites actually assemble? (For comparison, in the Civil War the Confederacy fielded between 750,000 and 1 million soldiers in its losing effort.) In 2018 Wired noted the difficulty in assessing the size of far-right groups – which are more than just “militias”. Wired points out that the best estimates of the 2017 Charlottesville rally – the largest such right-wing gathering in a decade – put the figure at just 500-600 participants (only a few of whom were armed). This, Wired observes, is “only a tiny fraction of what you’d expect from their [overstated] digital footprint.” Nonetheless, Professor McCord’s post is illustrated with a photo from Charlottesville of a couple of alleged “Oath Takers” provocatively costumed in a hodge-podge of military-like accoutrements, apparently as evidence of the existence of the “private armies” she dreads.
How do the few hundred people the “Oath Takers” have been able to muster in recent years match up to America’s security forces? By comparison to their “improbable” number, the U.S. has over 680,000 sworn police officers, and 2.15 million active, reserve, and National Guard troops – not to mention as many as 100 million men in the “militia of the United States.” In addition, the U.S. has, among other warfighting assets, over 6,200 tanks, and almost 40,000 armored fighting vehicles. The Oath Takers? Zero.
[ … ]
Does anybody really think the tweetsters that so agitate Professor McCord have any appetite for taking on even a SWAT team, let alone the U.S. military? Put another way: are we really facing a truly unprecedented crisis from these so-called “militias” that requires extraordinary measures as if we we’re facing “foreign forces prepar[ing] for potential violence” as Professor McCord characterizes it?
Dunlap has now adopted the derision he applied earlier to the SPLC, “tweetsters.” Dunlap is firmly ensconced in the military protocol of the eighteenth century, and has spent too much time assessing alleged law of war violations in OIF and OEF to have participated in or learned any lessons from them.
So let’s cover some important ground, shall we?
Intrastate warfare does not, cannot and will not adopt the protocols of large formations of troops lining up in great fields of battle with large military hardware requiring fuel, operators, maintenance, spare parts, Milstar uplinks, lines of logistics, and all of the support staff required to keep the necessary people fed, bathed, supplied with munitions, and medicated.
Big Army has never learned to deal with Fourth Generation warfare, and thus now focuses on fifth generation warfare with the Milstar uplinks even more important than they used to be. I’ve already discussed in some detail the vulnerability of the electrical grid, and those vulnerabilities have only slightly been ameliorated (a few more large step-up transformers have been deployed by utilities, but that’s about it). In a financial collapse, or even another FedGov shutdown, the inner city of Atlanta is 24 hours from violent riots from lack of SNAP payments.
But in order to put “meat on the bones” of this analysis, let’s turn to another, more detailed discussion from an alleged red team planner.
Former red team planner for the government here.
The United States Government has extensively studied the concept of second American Civil War (along the assumption that it will be left versus right. HMM. I WONDER WHY THEY MIGHT POSSIBLY DO THAT.)
Their conclusion is as follows: They don’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell of winning. The moment civil war is declared, the government loses. No scenario or outcome ends in their success. Period. It’s just a matter of how long it takes.
A longer analysis will follow, but here are the salient points.
30% of the American population will actively revolt.
This alone is enormous and damning. Historically, you only need 10% of the population to actively participate in a rebellion to successfully overthrow the establishment: We only had 15% of the population actively attempting to throw out the British during the Revolutionary War; roughly 70% of what remained was neutral and simply stood by. By contrast, 30% of Americans in modern America would support a revolution to stop their own government if it happened tomorrow That’s how discontent the people are and how much the people don’t support the government.
The government would need infrastructure more than rebels would.
Already working with significant handicaps, the establishment would need electricity, access to the Internet, bridges, and airports to coordinate any active campaign against the rebellion. By contrast, the rebellion can work in the dark. Considering how easy it would be to sabotage US infrastructure, one of the first things the rebellion would do is collapse bridges, destroy, or seize power plants, and cover the Interstate in IEDs. This is relatively simple to accomplish, and it would inflict enormous damage on the establishment’s ability to restore order. It would also cost an enormous amount of time and effort to fix any sabotage, because the establishment would need to provide military protection to any workers attempting to rebuild, which is a drain their active fighting personnel resources that they could not afford.
Taking America in a land war is almost impossible.
The United States is absolutely full of natural terrain chokepoints, making marching an army across it against armed resistance almost impossible, and it is large enough that no sustained air campaign would be possible. The Japanese Admiralty realized this themselves during WWII, which is why many of them were against attempting to invade. Also, by an interesting coincidence, most of those chokepoints are in hard conservative states, where the resistance would be strongest. The government would lack the ability to reclaim its own land by force, especially when the previous point about infrastructure is taken into account. President Lincoln, on the matter of potential European involvement in the first American Civil War, stated, “All the armies of Europe with a Bonaparte as a commander, could not take a drink from the Ohio.”
A significant majority–between 55 and 70%–of the military would defect to the side of the citizens.
The problem with suppressing the people with a military, that literature and fantasy tend to overlook or ignore, is that the military is the people, too. In order to get any military to fight their own, you first have to convince them that it is necessary to do so–that it is justified. The Communists also ran into this problem, but they overcame it with psychological conditioning and creating a dog-eat-dog atmosphere within the military. The American government having actively recruited people who are patriotic, practical, brave, who have civilian families, and having reinforced those values throughout their training process, lacks the ability to convince the majority of their fighting force to engage against their own people. The moment a civil war breaks out, over half of the American military will defect to the rebel side. They will bring military gear with them and, more dangerous, military training. lt only takes one Navy Seal or Army Ranger to potentially train hundreds of civilians into a dangerous resistance force. They’ve done it before, in other nations. You can be damn sure they can do it on their own home turf.
But it gets better.
At least 10% of the people who defect to the civilian side would not do so openly, and they would not abandon their posts.
The moment a civil war starts, not only does America lose over half its military to the cause, but their own command structure will suddenly be infested with moles, plants, and “traitors.” There would be almost no way of knowing who is actually on their side and who is supporting the uprising. Worse yet, if one of those people happens to be the captain of one of the nuclear submarines on standby in dark water, the civil war is already lost before it even gets started.
Russia has already publicly stated that it will support any rebellion in the United States against the established government and will send troops and aid to support the resistance. This is pretty self-explanatory. The last thing the government would need during a civil war is Russia breathing down its neck, but they would get exactly that. To supplement two-thirds of their own military leaving and civilians being trained by military elites, Spetsnaz would drop in and the resistance would get armor and air support from the only other nation on the planet that stands a decent chance of fighting us openly and winning.
The media fearmongers because it’s profitable.
The media, for all of its paid shillery, would give coverage of everything the resistance does because it is immensely profitable for them to do so. It would be guaranteed views. The only response the establishment would have would be to either allow it or order a total media blackout on the rebellion. Either way they lose, because both outcomes would awaken hundreds of thousands–if not millions–of people. We can only win on the media arena, and they can only lose. It’s merely a matter of what they think will minimize their losses.
American civilians are armed and dangerous.
In spite of all of the illegal attempts from the political left to disarm the American people, there are approximately 89 guns for every 100 Americans. Furthermore, we are one of the top three arms manufacturers on the planet (the others being Russia and France). The establishment would be in trouble even if their opponents were unarmed, but any rebellion of the people in America is, by definition, an armed one. They could be easily armed further by stealing weapons or even outright being given them by sympathetic interests (unsurprisingly, an overwhelming number of weapons manufacturers on American soil are deeply traditionalist, and the odds are good that many minor–and at least one major–would side with the rebels).
The last resort Catch 22.
The United States has an enormous stockpile of munitions and explosives, up to and including a massive number of nuclear warheads. But they cannot use any of this in this Civil War. The establishment has to play a game of “we’re the good guys” with the rest of the world while this is all taking place. There will be lines they cannot cross, because to do so would elevate the issue from being an internal matter to an international one. The moment they throw an ICBM at Ohio or drop a nuke on Austin, Texas, it stops being a civil war and becomes an international relief effort where the other militaries of the other first world nations come to save the American people from their own out-of-control and tyrannical government. The rebellion, meanwhile, is not nearly so limited re: the hypothetical nuclear submarine captain. The rebels could threaten–without bluffing–to nuke Washington DC, but the establishment has no equivalent threat they could return.
Deeper Analysis:
If there was a revolution in the US, the rest of the world would get involved, fast. Depending on the type of uprising, there is a large chance that it would not be a quick affair. It would be brutal, it would be bloody, and the US government could start a global scale war.
Here are the top ten issues that came up:
The US power grid can be taken down by a series of “surgical strikes” with the exception of the Texas grid. By surgical strikes, I mean a few marksmen (US army-tier Marksmen–the minimum requirement) hitting certain spots on the grid would fuck a lot of the military and government because they need the grid more than Bubba and his friends do. Additionally, while all government agencies have backup generators, they will be hard pressed dealing with the resultant looting and other madness that would come with power outages. This would effectively create another front for the military. It would also turn the people against the government more quickly and paralyze the government’s propaganda machine. Worse still–the key points of the US power grid are publicly obtainable information, and not only are the points too many to be effectively guarded, they are not guarded anyway.
The estimated desertion rate in case of a civil war is 75% in the case of a left-wing president. 50% of that would be assumed to immediately betray the president. The remaining (treasonous) military would be fighting its own. Yet another front created in the war. Additionally, there is an assumed 25-50% desertion or outright betrayal rate in three letter government agencies (FBI, CIA, NSA, ATC, TSA, etc.). Additionally, it is assumed that 5% of the initial 50% betrayers would stay in their job and become saboteurs. 10% of that 50% would contain key information that would be of critical danger to the US government. Of that 10%, 1% would be able to deliver that information to the US’ foreign enemies. What you should get from this is that the second the United States government declares war on its own is the second it ceases to exist as the state we know it.
“Tea baggers,” “right-wing extremists,” and “oath keepers” which are considered untrained racists who aren’t “good with a gun” often are A) veterans who now have more time to have fun at the range, sometimes more than some Army units or Marine units. In addition to previous military training, B) often camp and do other outdoor activities–more than many in the military do, as the focus has gone away from field exercises, and C) often have better equipment–outside of armor and heavy weapons–than the military. However, C) is kind of irrelevant because many of the places in which these people could hide would make the kind of war the US fights with the equipment they use pointless.
You can read the rest of the analysis at the link provided. Here is another analysis of this material. This all follows the format of red team planning, to be sure, as a team of people sitting at a table have limited time to wargame the scenario. But I think any analogous problems in America will go down a little differently (or at least, they will start that way).
For a starting point, let’s turn to the recent elections in Virginia and what will certainly result from them.
Regarding gun control, he referred to eight “common-sense” bills he proposed for the special legislative session he convened in July, in the aftermath of a mass shooting in Virginia Beach on May 31. Republicans who controlled the General Assembly shut down that session after 90 minutes — sending all of the bills to the crime commission and promising to reconvene after the election.
Northam mentioned universal background checks, banning the sale of assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, restoring the law that limits purchases to one gun a month, and a red flag law that would empower a court to temporarily remove a gun from a person deemed to be a risk to himself or others.
Reporters asked Northam if he was going to begin taking “assault weapons” from gun owners, and Northam’s answer was straight out of an Orwell novel.
“That’s something I’m working [on] with our secretary of public safety,” he said. “I’ll work with the gun violence activists, and we’ll work [on] that. I don’t have a definitive plan today.”
Virginia is a very divided state, as are many states these days. If you doubt me, you know nothing. I recommend that you spend some effort sporting around Southern and Western Virginia, learning the folk, talking with them, and spending time with them learning their world and life views.
If you believe that folks in those parts are going to turn in weapons because the governor of Virginia and the legislature says so, you simply haven’t spent enough time with them. Oh, the laws may be passed, but making this happen will exacerbate the divisions, not heal them.
LEOs live among the people. They have neighbors, go to church, shop the same grocery stores, and hunt the same land as the people they are supposed to serve (but rarely do). Upon the very first attempt to confiscate a weapon, husbands everywhere in Western and Southern Virginia will tell their wives in private, “Do not talk any more to Mary Jane, because her husband is Jeff. Remember, Jeff is a cop, and we can’t trust cops any more.”
Before long, Mary Jane will begin to notice that no one stops to talk with her at the grocery store any more, and everyone avoids them at church. Mary Jane will talk to Jeff about it, and Jeff is under some degree of stress because the current discussion at the station isn’t whether they will enforce the new state laws, because they’ve all decided they won’t. The current issue causing such a problem is whether they will stop any federal agents from enforcing any new FedGov laws at risk to their careers or even lives. He’s so sorry, but needs to support his family, so she’s going to just have to deal with it. She doesn’t want to just deal with it, she wants her friends back and he needs to do something to fix it. The marriage is now under stress and duress.
Workplace discussions about guns, politics and religion become much more private, and divisions and subdivisions begin to develop. Jeff’s life begins to get much more complicated, as the new red flag laws now target men who have been online discussing “second amendment remedies.” A cop in Northern Virginia has been shot trying to confiscate weapons from one of these raids, and Jeff doesn’t want to die doing something that violates his conscience and beliefs.
Jeff knows that noncompliance with weapon turn-in was literally 100 percent in his area, and doubts it’s much lower in the rest of Virginia. Cooperation with the police has been driven to virtually nothing except flea-bitten, drug addled, untrustworthy bums, and the judges are beginning to get testy that their warrants are becoming ill-informed and unreliable.
You can use your imagination to add to the problems that Mary Jane and Jeff are going to have in their marriage. In the mean time, you might want to ponder the frenzied state of the stock, bond and futures market today, and whether current monetary polices and global food control by Monsanto and Archer-Daniels-Midland are actually sustainable.
If any of the divisive problems I’m describing do become violent, the military problem isn’t going to be deploying tanks against a formation of troops. It will be how you find a shooter who fires from underneath a Ghillie suit, melts into the landscape in terrain so formidable that you can’t bushwhack your way through more than four miles per day, and disappears, never to be seen again.
Mr. Dunlap would be wiser to listen to the words of the red team planner: “The moment civil war is declared, the government loses.” If this concerns Mr. Dunlap, he would be better to spend his time trying to ameliorate divisions rather than dismissing them.
The commenters at SWJ demonstrate just how implausible this is.
Those fellow Americans who do not see the world in much the same parochial, backwards-looking, return to a former “golden age” status quo ante way that Trump (think “Make America Great Again”) appears to do?
(Herein, Trump’s such parochial, backwards-looking, return to a former “golden age” status quo ante agenda appearing to be based on the same general foundation as that of the Islamists; to wit: their [common?] determination to stop — and to reverse — necessary modernization, progress and change?
Mr. Trump isn’t the problem. He is the symptom. The divisions in America, which may prove to be fatal, were there before Trump, and will be there after Trump. The divisions are only becoming wider and deeper with time. That’s what should worry Mr. Dunlap. It won’t take armies marching up the Potomac. Armies won’t march anywhere in 4GW.
NOTE: Just to make certain the reader understands my position on this, I am not advocating all or any actions outlined here, simply to be prepared to protect your family. This is all outlined for educational and analysis purposes only. I didn’t write the article on the global food market causing the suicide of a vital American farmer. I only linked it. I didn’t write Mr. Dunlap’s analysis, or Ms. McCord’s analysis. I just linked them. I didn’t write the red team analysis above. I just linked it. I’m not causing the potential divisions in Virginia, Mr. Northam is. I just linked the report. The only analysis advocating violence of any sort is Mr. Dunlap’s analysis.
On November 10, 2019 at 11:47 pm, George said:
The fact that more than a few of the elites are obviously worried about this scenario shows that it is possible. In my opinion before it comes to that the U.S. is going to implode. Like Ron Paul said: ” The U.S. led Western Empire will end as all other empires have ended. When it can no longer pay its’ armies”. I am not as optimistic as the war planner above though. The U.S. military has many foreigners in it now and is not as rooted in the America first credo as it once was. Look at this Col. Vindman. He is not an American at heart.
Saudi Arabia and Israel are attempting to get us into a war with Iran. Remember the lost Roman Legions in Persia. Would it not be ironic if a disaster like like befell us and started the scenario above or one close to it. In any event I will probably not be around to see it. I pray for all of the younger people. I admonish them every chance I get to prepare and put their faith in God. I will help all of them I can until I am no longer able.
On November 11, 2019 at 12:41 am, Dave said:
Dunlap was a career Air Force JAG. That’s about as far from actual martial arts as a person can get and still claim to be in the military. His credentials in this articles subject are less than zero. My dog knows more about the practical application of The Art of War than he does.
On November 11, 2019 at 8:01 am, Mark Matis said:
A large percentage of the Communists hives are downwind from the Deplorables. If the elite choose to use a nuke on those who disagree with them, how long will it be until the nuclear fallout descends upon their hives? And what will those hive dwellers do when they find out that is among them? Even if at only a “banana rad” level? Of course, would the country not be far better off if they did indeed drop a nuke on Austin these days???
On November 11, 2019 at 8:16 am, ragman said:
Anyone that references the profoundly evil SPLC has no credibility at all. The situation the Captain speaks of, country folks vs the communists that inhabit the cities, is not unique to the Old Dominion. I travel all over my beloved South and it’s the same in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Carpetbaggers are running the cities and they know the country folks must be disarmed before they can totally control the rural populace. They also know that we will never surrender our firearms and that is their problem. I pray to God every day that our country will not be torn apart but conflict seems inevitable. This will not end well.
On November 11, 2019 at 8:31 am, Heywood said:
The saddest part of this whole article is the fact that (rightfully so) you felt the need to write the note at the end. THAT is proof positive of how far we have fallen. BTW…great article!!
On November 11, 2019 at 8:37 am, Matt Bracken said:
An outstanding compilation. A must-read for anybody who wants a deeper understanding of likely SHTF/CW2 scenarios. Thanks.
On November 11, 2019 at 10:43 am, Bram said:
I Jeff starts participating in gun-grabs, Mary Jane is the least of his worries. Locals know where their cops live. If he kills, or even arrests a man for owning guns, that man’s family just waits in the woods near Jeff’s house for him to come home from work…
On November 11, 2019 at 10:47 am, ambiguousfrog said:
That was a good read. And imo your NOTE was not needed but I get it in today’s environment. Reminds me of an article I saw on Zerohedge this weekend indicating the banks buying up gold and silver to buy up all the assets when the bottom finally falls out. They want to come out on top and screw everyone else. Hence, the reason behind the QE non-QE recently with the Fed. Something is afoot with all the pumping of liquidity into the market. Housing is a bubble and incomes are flat.
On November 11, 2019 at 11:19 am, Frank Clarke said:
I first thought “I should comment on this”, but soon realized anything I might say would be redundant.
I’ll just leave a link to my book that hypothesizes the Second U.S. Civil (sic) War:
http://frankclarke.dx.am/TipPtPage.html
On November 11, 2019 at 11:32 am, Jack Johnson said:
Correction.
The Oath Keepers are not “right wing”. They are as perfect -a- as right down the middle as you can get. The communist democrat left may call them right wing. As they call all law abiding, Constitution abiding, U.S. citizens, but using lefty buzz phrase speak, only legitimizes the left.
On November 11, 2019 at 11:36 am, Herschel Smith said:
@Jack,
I am not calling the Oath Keepers anything. I’m merely citing Dunlap. You understand, I’m certain.
On November 11, 2019 at 11:41 am, Dirk Williams said:
Fantastic article. However I do have a lingering concern , that being that many many here over inflate their skills sets, and repeatedly underestimate our enemy’s.
Only fools underestimate ones enemy. An “organized” army, any orginized outfit will not be a pushover. Bravado will kill a lot of dam good men and women, who should/could have fought em smarter.
Bill Bupperts ” ZeroGov” articles on men, their mountain, and understanding their strength/ weakness assets, should be reviewed often. The wisdom presented in that short article is simply must read.
BB is the real deal, unlike others,HAS been their, Done That.
Lastly, I read SMJ, daily. I’ve come to understand those writing their are academics, perhaps a few real deal warriors. A gem like this pops up from time to time.
Good find Herscel.
Dirt
On November 11, 2019 at 11:46 am, Herschel Smith said:
@Dirk,
Thanks. I generally have a fairly low view of my knowledge, skills and abilities. I suffer from the engineer’s problem. Unless I understand EVERYTHING about something, I usually assume I know nothing about it. And I usually try to understand everything about something before trying anything. I’m sure you’ve seen the type.
As for enemies, I have none except those who would openly declare themselves to be my enemies. I’m a peaceable man.
On November 11, 2019 at 11:53 am, Bill said:
I believe that “Civil War 2” will basically be strategic executions around the country. Media, political, entertainers and other divisive individuals pushing the fracturing of our national fabric.. It is good that the Mary B. McCord’s of America crawl out from under their rocks, so they can be added to the list…
On November 11, 2019 at 11:58 am, scott s. said:
The thing about the Civil War is much of the history is derived from classical MilHist study that is focused on the government armies. What is neglected is the study of irregular units and state-based militia never mustered into federal service (or if mustered only on an episodic basis). With modern emphasis on social and economic history of war that is somewhat changing. I think a key point is that within the civil war you had geographic areas in which the citizenship was very much divided and that’s where irregular warfare played a larger role, including terrorism of nominally civilian populations. Of course in the civil war you also had the dynamic on the southern side of the constant threat of “servile insurrection” which also impacted the attitudes of civilian and irregular forces.
Add to this resistance on both sides to the drafting of soldiers and the fear of active resisters (copperheads in the north and mountain folk in the south). Lincoln was actually pretty adroit at exploiting fear of levying a draft or the “fifth column” (supplying federal troops to defend) to get his way with the governors. He also used the “Union Committees” established throughout the north as a way to bypass the radical-controlled Republican Party, going so far as to leave the republicans and form a “National Union” Party in 1864 which then nominated him and Johnson for the 64 elections. (The radicals for their part nominated John Fremont as the Republican candidate but on seeing they got no traction eventually accepted the Lincoln/Johnson ticket.)
Were there to be a civil war today, I can’t help but think the urban areas would be at a severe disadvantage, as social cohesion seems pretty low and urbanites are much more dependent on steady trade from the hinterlands than vice-versa.
On November 11, 2019 at 12:01 pm, RonaldB said:
If all the factors that Dunlap mentions, and their implications, are true, then the US should have lost the Civil War. It didn’t. The Union army, supported by a larger population and industrial base, and commanded by a President who would stop at no atrocity to win the war, finally overwhelmed the Confederate States through systematic destruction and starvation of the civilian population, as well as the military. The Red Army of Russia, in 1921, led by a completely ruthless, sociopath commander, Trotsky, overwhelmed the White Russians with pretty much the same tactics: systematic killing of civilians, starvation and destruction.
There is the additional problem that a mass movement would split itself. Look at the Yellow Vest uprising in France. The people wish for a change, but the movement itself is split among competing objectives, and also probably thoroughly infiltrated by French security. Dunlap mentions the infiltration that could be achieved by forces sympathetic to rebel citizens, but infiltration works the other way: the intelligence agencies have shown that however incompetent they are in foreign endeavors, they are very efficient in spying on US citizens.
On November 11, 2019 at 12:16 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@Ronald,
I think you may be confusing Dunlap’s analysis with the red team planner’s analysis.
On November 11, 2019 at 12:37 pm, DrDog said:
I agree that the problem preceding Trump will be there after him as well. But I don’t think that is where his value lies:
* Trump has loosened the American tongue. Things that were unspeakable now are.
* The man is seeding the Judiciary with individuals that the Left will not trust. He is chopping off one of the pillars of Progressive assault. Lest you think that small potatoes; consider there were legal options available to Lincoln he did not pursue because SCOTUS was packed with Southeners at the time.
* MAGA is a great slogan even if it is never achieved. It reminds people as well of what has been lost, maybe forever.
As to CWII, logistically the Left loses once the trains are prevented from running. You cannot feed a city of 6m with just trucks. Blowing up rails will be even easier that planting IEDs on interstates by at least 10x.
On November 11, 2019 at 1:44 pm, Vince said:
As stated above this McCord is an academic. Stranded here in the heart of blue country I can tell you that you have no idea how low and opinion these self styled elites have of regular folks. My guess is McCord is one of these. She probably also typical in that her skill set across the board is utterly useless once the electricity goes out and food trucks stop running. If she is a typical liberal ‘elite’ based upon my experience the ‘right’ people live in the ‘right’ place and have all the ‘right’ trappings of success. They most certainly don’t rub elbows with the common man, even those doing all the physical labor at their houses. In short.. they are clueless about at least 1/2 if not more of their fellow Americans and how they think and live, less knowledgeable about how things work and have zero idea of how to fix things that are broken.
The red team analysis is most interesting, especially the percentages of deserters and/or ‘traitors’. From my experience the war gamers usually tilt the board toward the side of team blue so even this assessment may be over generous.
I should hope this cup would pass us by but it seems there are too many pushing for just this scenario.. and sadly is those with the least idea of what happens once the dogs of war are unleashed.
On November 11, 2019 at 1:55 pm, Michael Gladius said:
The guys at SMJ are definitely correct that there won’t be a conventional stand-up fight, but I don’t like the notion of “4th-Generation Warfare” because words don’t win wars- even cultural wars involve killing the enemy and disabling his hand, Starship-Troopers Style. A Brazen enemy will gladly tolerate people who “wake up” and do nothing, because they’ll just sit and watch, waiting for somebody to give them orders.
The tactics described in here are valid, but the Left does have a few viable options to take. The first is mass mobilization. One big advantage of cities is that the owner can always conscript another 500,000 men if need be. For fighting a counterinsurgency, where a 20-to-1 advantage in numbers is normally needed, owning the cities is imperative.
The second advantage also involves owning cities: forced urbanization. When the USSR invaded Afghanistan, it did big mechanized sweeps of the countryside. However, they did not forcibly relocate the agrarian population into big cities to power the steel mills and refineries. Thus, the guerrillas had a deep sea to swim in. Had the Soviets drained the sea, the Mujahedin would have struggled much harder to fight and win.
A third advantage the left could use if they had any brains is horse-mounted gendarmes/partisans. Gendarmes are skilled at both policing and basic infantry tasks, and their relationship to partisans is similar to that between SOF and proxies. Gendarmes, not SOF, are most dangerous to guerrillas. Mounting them on horseback improves their mobility (and carbon footprint) without relying on oil supplies (although the resupply trucks won’t change).
With horse-mounted Gendarmes/partisans, they can use Zerg swarm tactics: hundreds of platoons saturating an area. Even if an individual platoon can easily be annihilated, attacking one immediately draws twenty more into the area. Horsemen can outrun dismounted infantry, and helicopters can spot any motor vehicles attempting to flee. Again, the main issue is numbers, and the left believes religiously in the power of numbers. This particularly effective leveraging of numbers, however, requires imagination and it is not yet known if the left possesses it.
On November 11, 2019 at 2:01 pm, June J said:
How many hundreds or thousands of people like this will there be?
https://www.amazon.com/Jack-Hinsons-One-Man-Civil-Sniper/dp/1589806409
The true story of one man’s reluctant but relentless war against the invaders of his country.A quiet, wealthy plantation owner, Jack Hinson watched the start of the Civil War with disinterest. Opposed to secession and a friend to Union and Confederate commanders alike, he did not want a war. After Union soldiers seized and murdered his sons, placing their decapitated heads on the gateposts of his estate, Hinson could remain indifferent no longer. He commissioned a special rifle for long-range accuracy, he took to the woods, and he set out for revenge. This remarkable biography presents the story of Jack Hinson, a lone Confederate sniper who, at the age of 57, waged a personal war on Grant’s army and navy.
On November 11, 2019 at 2:02 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@Michael,
I don’t have any comment on your comment, other than about horses.
I used to train quarter horses. Have you ever tried to ride a horse through the bush anywhere other than a beaten, well-worn path?
Do you have any idea how few people actually know anything about how to handle large farm animals like that?
Do you have any idea how few quarter horses would be available for such a task as the one you describe?
On November 11, 2019 at 3:00 pm, Ned2 said:
I’m going to quibble about “30% of the American population will actively revolt.”
I don’t believe that’s an accurate number. Tax revolt, maybe, but armed rebellion?
Joe Sixpack and the rest of the population that live to amuse themselves to death, have neither the moral fortitude nor inclination to save even themselves.
I would bet almost the entire population are in some way dependent on government for their daily existence. They need the free health care, education and every other social program designed to render them dependent. They have no ability to provide their own food. They’ll do what they’re told, even if they have to march to the gulag and live on gruel. Hell, half of them would probably die before trying to survive.
On November 11, 2019 at 3:13 pm, Michael Gladius said:
@Herschel
When off-roading, both men on foot and horses will have their mobility reduced. However, the horse will still be faster than dismounted infantry or wheeled traffic. Horse patrols would be used like hunting dogs to flush the game, and would normally be accompanied by helicopters overhead. Anything too dense for comfort can be bulldozed or burned to produce clearings (see Operation Cedar Falls). The press will blame “Fascist Anarchists” for any destruction to habitat, of course.
The other piece is, horse riders would dismount before fighting. Horses aren’t for tactical charges, but for rapidly concentrating dispersed platoons (operational level) when one of them is attacked. The ability to quickly amass overwhelming numbers is far more in line with Leftist swarm tactics than producing smaller, higher-quality decapitation forces.
Very few people know how to ride horses, but the Soviets trained an entire Cavalry Army during the Russian Revolution. Plenty of Red leaders come from elite schools with horsemanship teams (West Point has one, too), so how hard would it be to conscript the instructors and put them all together into a school somewhere to train masses of Antifa volunteers? They probably won’t care about horse casualties, either, and likely ride their mounts to destruction. Quantity over quality.
Acquiring horses would be the least difficult task. If domestic supplies are low, then importations can come through the ports. Rhodesia was basically embargoed, and yet “gifts” and volunteers poured in from abroad when they reactivated Grey’s Scouts. The riders would not be restricted to Quarter Horses, either: they could use Appaloosas, ponies, or really any horses currently used in Western Riding. A single, uniform horse type across units would likely not be the case.
Again, this initiative would be limited more by imagination than by hardware. Training gendarmes and partisans to effectively patrol and rapidly concentrate would be more difficult for the left, particularly under aimed fire. Our enemies don’t have the same discipline as professional armies (they’re mad dogs), and are more likely to panic or get distracted when their buddies start getting ventilated. Mounted infantry are a kind of light infantry, and will therefore be employed like them.
On November 11, 2019 at 3:14 pm, TS Adams said:
Kill the horses, kill the dogs, blow up the fuel farms, railroad tracks and transformers, etc, etc.
But sooner or later you have to go on the offensive or they will find a way to penetrate your weaknesses; and you will have them. The only safety you will have is total victory and reestablishing a just government. Total victory can only be bought with total war.
Meanwhile the communists hyenas will be looking to eat whats left.
The God that saved the founding Fathers will be the God that saves us after we have bled out our rebellion against Him.
On November 11, 2019 at 3:19 pm, Adino said:
The oligarchs grok everything stated above which is why to win the war they have shoved down everyone’s throats they sent us a Judas.
That is why they sent the controlled opposition named Trump.
Trump has maintained the oligarchic status quo and it’s monopolies and revenue streams to the oligarchs. Nothing operationally concerning fedguv has changed a single iota. In fact it’s worse now that gun control can be accomplished via Executive Order to the ATF (bump stocks).
Trump’s shining achievement, from an oligarchic perspective, is to split the organized galvanized base of Trad Americans that came out of the 0bama era into thirds (united we stand, divided we fall. Repeat, united we stand divided we fall).
1/3 of the Trad American base licks up every single lie Trump lays out there about running America for Americans and ignores all evidence and facts we are STILL being replaced and ground under oligarchic desired globalguv wheels. Trumpbots all the way.
1/3 of Trad Americans are like Charlie Brown after Lucy yanked the football again. We’ve been treated to another bait and switch and are pissed.
1/3 of Trad Americans suffer from the cognitive dissonance that exists when Trump lies about giving American government back to Americans and does exactly the opposite. Again. And again. And again.
If one were to judge Trump based on delivery of his promises (detailed on Bannon’s white board) and what he has actually delivered his Admin is a total failure. Not being hitlery does not convey success.
Sound money has not been returned (the Federal Reserve and it’s enslavement device the frn still pull their reverse Robin Hood stealing from the poor to give to the rich). The swamp has not been drained (so far from it in fact that hitlery is waiting to run for prez again). The forever wars still rage as the MIC calls the shots (pun intended). There is no wall and the illegal alien invasion overseen by the Judicial Branch continues unabated. We still have the cold war era albatross NATO around our necks (who doesn’t like being hated by Europe for saving their a$$es repeatedly while they spend their money on Marxist boondoggles) Big tech (the same ones that handed the House of Representatives back to uniparty left to bring us the impeachment show) still deprive half of America of its free speech rights. The whole s^%t show continues. No stop to clown town.
imho, that is all by design. Intentional cultural fog of war to mask the real one.
Trad Americans have to be conditioned to support that which supports Trad America. Not lies about supporting Trad America, but real support. Don’t get sucked in by the 24/7/365 kabuki that is the district of corruption (STILL!!)
You cannot win any war without properly identifying the enemy and their objectives. Friend or foe designation could not be more imperative than it is right now.
Friend vs. foe is identified not by tweets but actual support. Results.
This deplorable is still waiting for the right deplorable to do what the tattered remnants of the republic need.
They want us all to stay in our money brains so that the human brains and especially the lizard brains stay out of this.
See the theater and stage and not the actors.
On November 11, 2019 at 3:26 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@Adino,
None of that has the slightest to do with anything in the article.
On November 11, 2019 at 3:30 pm, Adino said:
My post was an attempt to put the conflict in a different big picture than others see.
I respectfully disagree about its pertinence and applicability but it is your website and article so I will sit down and shut up.
On November 11, 2019 at 3:37 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@Michael,
You didn’t answer my question. Have you ever tried to ride a horse yourself over bush terrain on something other than a well-worn, obvious trail?
There are two possibilities. Your suggestion is a joke and I bit. The second is that you’re serious.
Do you have the foggiest idea how many millions of horses it would take to cover the South and midwest in such a manner as to be something other than a mere show? Do you understand how few of those horses would have riders who understood the least thing about how to manage them? Do you understand that nothing having to do with horses would be “rapid?”
Have you ever trained horses? Have you ever ridden them? Have you ever doctored them? Do you understand the concentration of diseases that would occur if you put that many horses on a ship? How on earth would you maintain hygiene? Have you ever “picked stalls” on a daily basis? How on earth would you prevent muscle atrophy? How many F350s and trailers do you think would be necessary to transport them from a port of entry to where they were needed?
Have you considered that use of an ATV would be quicker than trying to get a horse to go through dense bush? Have you considered that any action in the bush is by necessity going to be dismounted anyway? Have you considered the army of vets necessary to doctor the animals, not to mention the need for Ferriers who don’t exist in the numbers that would be needed for this army of horses?
Good grief man. Seriously.
EDIT: Something came to mind that you wouldn’t understand if you have never managed horses. Forget what you’ve witnessed in the American Western movies. It’s fake. It isn’t real. It’s all make-believe.
Riders don’t run horses like that. You can do that for about two minutes. If you go longer, you kill the horse. They die. The end.
Horses walk from place to place, at a maximum, lope. They don’t run for long. They’re too large for that. They come up lame, they overheat, their hearts will burst. They need food. They need rest. They need water. The logistics train would be a nightmare, for no other purposes than to walk from place to place. Think of horses this way. The reason you would have one is because you don’t have the stamina they do and can’t go as long. There is NOTHING that would be rapid about horses.
On November 11, 2019 at 3:43 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@Adino,
I understand your point. I don’t like Trump much either. I think he’s a NY prog, a thug by nature. He’s also a gun controller, something I’ve pointed out many times over these pages. He isn’t “my man.”
But the main point of the post is something else, having to do with the fractured nature of America, TOTALLY outside of the issue of Trump, TOTALLY outside of silly analyses like what Dunlap gave you. Neither Trump nor Dunlap, nor the silly woman who wrote the analysis that started all of this, nor those inside the beltway, understand the peril America is in at the moment. Careening down the path to destruction, they are, oblivious to the danger ahead, oblivious to the total inability to turn this spigot off once it’s been opened.
Unless they turn it back, somehow, against all odds.
On November 11, 2019 at 4:07 pm, Adino said:
I sent an email apologizing for any derailment, but since the topic is still somewhat public I will respond.
All wars are fought for money and power.
All of them.
Analysis of any war, therefore, dictates an analysis of who is after the money and power and why?
Who wants FUSA torn apart? And why? And why now?
I contend that those who want this bloody mess are those who rule FUSA – the oligarchs.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/21/americas-oligarchy-not-democracy-or-republic-unive/
Oligarchs that desire regional and then global governance. They are bringing us a domestic color revolution. And they are using our government and media to do it.
Those laying the foundation for the desired future of FUSA have a road block – real Trad Americans.
There is a necessary unpleasantness to clear that roadblock. That is CW2.
The oligarchs desire puppets for every level below them. They want the world on literal strings they control.
Noticing the puppet masters and strings is essential for those wanting to pull a Pinocchio.
On November 11, 2019 at 4:31 pm, Michael Gladius said:
@Hershal
If you want to make this about my own experience in riding horses, it’s pretty negligible. However, horses can go places wheeled vehicles can’t, and I don’t see why brush would affect them any differently from any other walking quadrupedal animal (although to be fair, horses don’t have to worry about catching their horns/antlers in a thicket). I’m also not convinced that the brush common in the Eastern mid-Atlantic (VA, WV, PA) would pose any real risks to the riders other than discomfort. Down in remoter parts of Georgia, on the other hand, might cross the threshold. But, then again, brush can be cleared with bulldozers if it gets to be a problem.
And yes, cavalry in the modern era expected that 9 out of 10 engagements would be fought dismounted. Nobody is debating that.
Second, the left’s strategy of methodical forced urbanization would mean they don’t need to cover the South/Midwest all at once. They’d instead move 500,000 men into a small region, perhaps <5% of the state's area, and then force everybody onto buses or trains into Atlanta, Detroit, New Orleans, etc. Once the region is depopulated, they move onto the next one. If they don't depopulate, then they're replicating the USSR in Afghanistan and leaving the sea undrained. The horse tactics only work with an overarching strategy of demographic annihilation.
While they are forcibly relocating people, they will have the manpower/density to quickly concentrate forces. If the guerrillas are using trucks, the choppers will spot them. If the guerrillas are on foot, then the horses will be faster. If the guerrillas use ATVs, then they'll have to refuel eventually (cutting off supplies works both ways). For the Left's purposes, anybody who tries to resist forced urbanization will be at a tactical-operational disadvantage, and anybody who returns to a depopulated area will be suspect. Caches would take on supreme importance if the Left resorts to forced urbanization, which necessitates planning and preparation (something the right doesn't do well atm).
The left wouldn't care about the quality of its riders, but would have the trainers and if they can't equip them, they'll send them out anyways. Again, see the part about elite schools' riding teams. I'm confident they would make every logistical mistake you mention about diseases/hygiene/atrophy, and more. Unskilled riders + poorly maintained horses = bad. But these aren't the kind of people who care. Their purpose is numbers, and they'll sacrifice horses just as readily as they'll sacrifice each other. By adopting a methodical, county-by-county strategy, they can shorten their supply lines considerably and rely on rail (armored trains, maybe?) for everything else. In order to sabotage the rail lines against forced urbanization, the damage would have to occur in multiple locales and pray that they haven't been deported already. Deported zones are free-fire zones.
I agree that a proper army using horses would be better off with motorized and ATVs (except in the highest mountains), and that horses need caring for, just like rifles. However, I'm willing to assume the Left is ruthless enough to ignore its own losses and use every possible resource it can get its hands on. If 10,000 horses die to maltreatment, they won't care. If they lose 10,000 men because they're malnourished, then they'll just conscript 50,000 more. Horses will not be an isolated component, but part of a larger combined-arms force. They would not replace choppers, trucks, or dismounted infantry.
On November 11, 2019 at 4:39 pm, Adino said:
One more word, can’t help myself….it’s a rich man’s war and a poor man’s fight.
Sooner or later us poor should question why.
Why should we fight for the oligarchs?
When does personal cost open our eyes our blood makes it better for them and not us?
On November 11, 2019 at 4:44 pm, Winston said:
“Russia has already publicly stated that it will support any rebellion in the United States against the established government and will send troops and aid to support the resistance. This is pretty self-explanatory. The last thing the government would need during a civil war is Russia breathing down its neck, but they would get exactly that. To supplement two-thirds of their own military leaving and civilians being trained by military elites, Spetsnaz would drop in and the resistance would get armor and air support from the only other nation on the planet that stands a decent chance of fighting us openly and winning.”
The paragraph above is total nonsense. You might have watched ‘Wolverines’ too many times. There is nothing to back up your claim, and historically, it is the US that invades other countries overseas in its wars of choice. The Russians have zero need to invade our Globohomoland. Russian farmers are the largest exporters of wheat in the world, and Russia is still the largest country on the planet with half the population of the US.
On November 11, 2019 at 6:09 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@Winston,
How do these comments degrade this way? I have no idea.
So, that’s not my paragraph, genius. It belongs to someone else. Take it up with him.
As for the content itself, it was part of his analysis and it would have been inappropriate for me to have deleted it. I too find it less probable than his other analysis, but more probable that Russian industry (Kalashnikov) would make some money selling both ammunition and armaments to those who were willing to pay. Weapons is big business.
Also more probable is that the cartels and organized crime would flex its muscle in the inner cities / urban areas, leading eventually to a failed state like we see South of the border.
At any rate, do try to find a way to say this in a manner that doesn’t make it look like you’re trying to show your ass to us all.
Again, it’s not my paragraph. Read more carefully.
On November 11, 2019 at 6:14 pm, St.Maur1066 said:
The infrastructure is like the human body, the Patriots like Ebola……. This wont take long.
On November 11, 2019 at 8:57 pm, Ben said:
I’d love to know how “they” would just magically move 500K troops to an area and Gary Owen all resistance.
I seriously wonder if people have ever driven across this nation and just don’t grok the scale of the territory involved.
On November 11, 2019 at 9:15 pm, Rooster said:
Thanks Herschel for the article. Thank you for the time you invested in putting it together and for the discussion that followed. The insights gained from the cross section of discussion are invaluable to us that have some common sense, it’s what we will be dealing with when the ball drops. Vires adversis rebus.
On November 11, 2019 at 9:37 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@Rooster,
Thank you for the kind words sir.
On November 11, 2019 at 10:33 pm, Rooster said:
One that was particularly laughable was the horse brigade, for lack of a better misnomer. I have ridden horseback through the mesquite senderos of south Texas and up into the Rocky Mountains of New Mexico and Colorado. The idea that in today’s environment that a company of men who are experienced horsemen AND proficient at arms AND well armed AND fearless in battle (or hell, that wouldn’t skeedaddle at the first shot) could possibly be gathered together in one place at one time is, well, pretty darned farfetched. And Epstein did kill himself! Where do these people come from? Thank God that in my little corner of the world there ain’t too many of them!
On November 11, 2019 at 11:41 pm, Fred said:
I agree Herschel. And there is just no way to come anywhere close to war-gaming America accurately.
If you know about 10 good men that you can trust, that’s as good as it will get for any of us. Forget the big picture, you can’t own it, but it can own you. Don’t let that happen. Stay true to your God and to those few you know for certain.
I have prayed to God Almighty that He would destroy America. America’s exports are porn filth and death by unjust waring and it’s imports are Chinese poisoned food & junk made from plastic that nobody needs, oh and foreigners. There are 70 million dead babies. Judgement is catastrophic failure at all levels, especially of logic, reason, and soundness of decision and the tools God has generally used are the big four; plagues, famines, pestilences, and wars.
God is already making a mockery of the worlds finest liberal education system. The logic and reason are already failing. The military and medical systems of America won’t be far behind, else how can we have wars and plagues? A gun behind every blade of grass, two oceans to protect America? Has anybody noticed the unarmed massive invasion? God does have a sense of humor, although nobody reading here probably thinks that this is particularity funny.
This is Judgement; all that a nation holds as it’s sources of false greatness will be brought low. America was God’s, that’s why it was great. He who has turned and now hates God and has declared as it’s might the things of it’s own worldly creation and holds them out as it’s power, will be made a laughing stock and a byword.
There is simply no way to game it out, none of what’s coming will make historical sense or be easily categorized by logic. The future, if it be secular, will regard the former America with pity and think that it must have been something in the water that drove them all to madness and stupidity. The future, if it be Christian, will regard the Judgement of America with awe and reverence for Holy God. LORD, let it be the later for your glory.
Most Christians understand by the Spirit that something is coming, even if their Eschatology is massively retarded due to being misled. If they only understood what the New Testament is actually about they would never have allowed America to get to this point. But very few see, and even fewer still will say that America is a great anti-Christ. Good riddance.
Seriously, dear Brother Christians, do find out about the destruction that God wrought upon those that rejected His Son. Perhaps you could read your New Testament, you know, as though it were a book, meant to be a revelation of not only spiritual truths but, *gasp* historical, as in ALREADY HAPPENED, events. God is not hiding anything in the New Testament. It’s not some future magical mystery. It is an open book, not sealed up. If you knew what it was that God did to them that rejected Him you would be freaking out at our current condition, and you should be.
God didn’t need the temple or the Jews, they needed Him. God doesn’t need America or white men, we need Him.
(The usual disclaimer: I just read my Holy Bible and observe what’s happening, I claim no special knowledge or revelation.)
On November 12, 2019 at 1:21 am, Walkabout said:
@Michael
Your lack of experience with horses shows every time you post, as does your ignorance of the difficulty of navigating dense underbrush. There’s a reason you don’t hear lots of stories of US cavalry in the eastern states. Its because horse traffic is impossible once you get into anything even remotely wild. Theres also a reason every military in the world switched to mechanized travel as soon as it was able. Mechanical transport costs less that beasys of burden. You’ve got to feed the horse whether he’s working or not. The car doesn’t burn fuel unless iys running.
Tire goes flat, you change it and recycle the rubber. Horse goes flat you shoot it and turn it into dog food and glue.
Further exacerbating the point, horses are BIG. Even the little ones. And any horse that can carry a man and his fighting gear will be too big to navigate through what Herschel is talking about. Hell, I live in eastern Oklahoma, and stuff grows so thick here it may as well be a concrete wall. Horses ain’t even gonna make it in, let alone outpace a guy who knows the terrain, and you can’t hack through it witj a machete. Washington Irving came through my neck of the woods a few years ago, and commented on the absolute impossibility the terrain and local flora made any kind of efficient travel. The native oaks here grow close, and hard like iron, and there run through with woody brambles, thorns, stinging nettles, and God awful westeria vines.
To sum up, horses are slow and needy in open country (the Apache used to be famous for out distancing cavalry units), they aren’t even going to make it deep into the wild stuff, let alone run a man down. And if horses are slow, see how long it takes a bulldozer just to get on site! Ha! If they were desperate they’d just do what they did in Vietman: napalm.
On November 12, 2019 at 4:15 am, Dan said:
Everyone trying to predict what the coming festivities will look like or how they will play out are spouting steam. NOBODY knows what the future holds. The odds of the US seeing a second violent civil war are significant…but not certain. HOW it will play out cannot be predicted but it’s probably safe to say it won’t look a damn thing like the last one. And perhaps the only other comment to be considered accurate is the left simply WILL NOT QUIT pushing for total control and the destruction of our
freedom and thus will trigger the coming unpleasantries. Beyond that it’s anybody’s bet as to what transpires and how they will do so.
On November 12, 2019 at 10:17 am, Al said:
The “sense” I’m getting is that the Left Desires more than anything, an Armed Rebellion that they can lay at the feet of the average Americans who so obviously do NOT favor Armed Rebellion, but, who WILL STAND AGAINST any ANTIFA Thugs who will be set against our Families and Agencies who Do Not follow their Far Left Ideology.
Remember when the Far Left Obama Regime spent hundreds of Billions of our Tax Dollars on Assault Weapons (REAL ones), Heavy Artillery (155mm Field Guns, 105 mm Canons, Antitank Weapons (For them to go agains all Activer units who rise to protect America from the Leftist REBELS. Uinforms, Equipment, Body Armor, Ammunition, FOOD (Freeze Dried Meals, canned Wilk & Wateret cetera) Armored Vehicles, Medical Supplies. I had to WAIT a year to be able to buy MOUNTAIN HOUSE Freeze Dried Meals. A representative at MH told me that they were told not to TELL anyone who asked, the reason for the year long Back order que.
I had already envisioned THIS situation as the Worst Case Scenario. BTW: It is “Oath KEEPERS” not “Oath Takers”….We KEEP our Oath, and hold it Sacred. the exact opposite of the Leftist Communists now seeking to take control of this, our Republic.
On November 12, 2019 at 10:48 am, Al said:
If we take a look at the way the Left has been steamrolling their dishonest, Leftist rhetoric, the Left IS counting on starting a “HOT” Rebellion by hook or by crook.
One that THEY are intent on starting. The SPLC are an odiferous cancerous blot on the side of this Republic. Like ALL Communists throughout World History, they speak out of both sides of their mouth.
When the monster Hillary, threw away the Election she was told was a “Shoe-in”. She, AND the Communist Left, went insane! We The People Watched with Horror, their insanity on the National Evening “News”. Now, they’ve settled down to ‘taking’ America away from We the People, by insideous, underhanded methods. By our being Labled “OATH TAKERS”, we were slapped in the face by the Communists, WE Americans GIVE our OATH, and we KEEP our Oath because we are an HONORABLE People.
The Left, play by NO RULES but their own. LIES are their facts….
Read “Rules For Radicals” and you’ll understand what I mean…
Worst case scenario: WE will be up to our asses in a KKK/Communist Party authored Civil War…BE responsible, speak with like minded, sane folks and watch each others backs.
Just hold your fire until you can make every round count in the defense of our Republic. Pray for Peace, but remain vigilant.
God Bless Us All, SEMPER FIDELIS
On November 12, 2019 at 1:48 pm, JimR said:
horses? that’s not going to work.
Horses are fragile, eat a lot, and in brush, get injured easily. That’s why you don’t find them there. When the Spaniards brought horses to the new world, they thrived on the prairies and the plains, not the deep woods of the west and east.
Anyone who thinks horses are the mobility answer for masses of troops has never dealt with horses.
Thanks for the chuckle though!
On November 12, 2019 at 2:27 pm, Lou Martines said:
Incredible exchange. Even the tangents, and detours may be learned from. Only comment is “attention to detail”, we are OATH KEEPERS, as corrected, and the communist democrat count fails to include about 5 million veterans, 1 million active duty, 500,000 retired law enforcement, etc. One does not need to be physically active, in order to actively support the Oath Keepers. One only needs functioning cause, and effect genes.
Respectfully,
Oath Keeper #6,398,457
On November 12, 2019 at 7:26 pm, streamfortyseven said:
Mechanized warfare of any sort requires oil and refinery products, like gasoline and diesel. It doesn’t take a lot to take out a refinery – and it takes a lot of work and a long time to replace or repair one. Same case for tank farms. And then, there’s pipelines, for both liquid fuels and natural gas. Those tend to run for hundreds of miles through rural areas. So there’s that.
Railway lines don’t need blowing up, just weaken bridges and let the train engine do the work. No rail lines, no coal, no electricity. And no electricity means no refrigeration. So that, too.
And unlike the Civil War, there’s no front lines, so from that viewpoint it would be another Afghanistan. The US has been in Afghanistan for 18 years and it controls its FOBs by day, and not much by night.
If you think using maps and logistics, it’s pretty obvious that the best that could be accomplished would be a protracted stalemate, until the tax money to fund the war effort ran out. Given the current situation, that might not be very long. Add to that the need to conscript troops and train them, even putting every man of China’s military into the field – 2 million men – wouldn’t be enough. Niall Ferguson estimated that to produce a decisive win in Iraq, it would require 1 million boots on the ground – that’s for a population of 17 million. The US essentially lost that war, btw. The US has 329 million people. So it’s an undoable situation.
As for horses, that’s a joke, they need good forage, if they eat plants with lots of phytates or carbohydrate-rich hay, they end up with laminitis – or colic. And that horse is permanently out of action. You might be able to use mules for pack animals, but their reputation is well deserved. And you’d better have a farrier, and one who knows how to make shoes for hard-surface travel, and for earthen surfaces. They’re different, and road travel on regular horseshoes can cripple a horse. So forget that idea.
On November 12, 2019 at 10:39 pm, james said:
I grew up with horses in the west and you guys are completely right, that horse idea is the dumbest idea I’ve ever read for all the reasons given. The idea that horses are mobile in mountainous terrain is laughable, along with rocky and steep and the manzanita and mesquite in the southwest there are forests in New Mexico, Idaho, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Utah and Nevada that a horse can’t even begin to get through. I have staked mining claims over forty years in all those states enough to know.
On November 13, 2019 at 7:50 pm, John Deaux said:
As mentioned earlier, leftist primarily dwell in the larger cities and have pretty much 0 knowledge in building, repairing or maintaining anything.
With most modern stores running out of supplies in a week or less in normal times and little to no food production inside those cities. Also most power generation and and day by day needed brought in so seizing control of the surrounding areas then blockading those cities would soon bring starvation, disease and death to those inside…. A few thousand determined patriots could cripple tens of millions in a fairly short period of time.
Expect no mercy and none given.