COVID-19 Preparations
BY Herschel Smith
4 years, 9 months ago
I’m not a medical professional (although I will cite one in particular), but one of my best buddies texted me to ask what I thought, so here it is.
Here’s what we know at the moment about Covid-19 (I won’t supply the copious URLs since you can find them yourself or have already studied them). Covid-19 is probably a weaponized virus. There is still speculation that the practice of keeping animals in close proximity that would not otherwise be that way has caused animal to animal to human transmission of mutated viruses, but in my opinion this is a least probable origin.
China sat on the information for too long to allow for containment and isolation of it, so the entire world is now dealing with it. It shows indications of behaving like HIV, inasmuch as the method of attachment to a cell involves a “hook,” and thus it is extremely hard to get rid of. Animals appear to be able to test “weak positive” for the virus, even if they are asymptomatic.
There is a risk of recurrence of the virus, so this has led to speculation that the virus isn’t really killed with treatment, lies dormant, and can reappear later (maybe not much later). Then again, it’s entirely possible these patients were released and declared well without really being well.
Two dozen “first responders” have been quarantined in Washington State. The problem with this was explained to me by my daughter, a health care provider (in surgery and emergency medicine). Health care providers see patients with HIV, TB and Hepatitis (and various other blood borne and airborne illnesses) all the time. One cannot isolate and contain without knowing that the patient has a disease. Diagnosis must precede isolation. Otherwise, it’s just the common cold. Covid-19 can be transmitted asymptomatically.
This particular virus has a transmission vector that makes it very contagious. It’s difficult to diagnose and contain prior to transmission of the virus to others. Moreover, my daughter is concerned about the level of understanding and training associated with this virus, as well as hospital procedures and equipment to deal with an epidemic. The CDC can say what they want – the hospitals in America are unqualified to deal with this, and there may be no way to deal with it without assuming that every patient who comes into the ER has this virus (an expensive, time- and labor-intensive process for which America doesn’t have the resources or personnel).
So there is much bad news. There is some good news too. While there won’t be a vaccine for this for a long time, it appears that anti-viral drugs (such as are used for HIV) are effective against this virus. Of course, that’s expensive. It would stretch the logistics chain to the breaking point, especially since all of our drugs are made in China. This is one effect of a global economy.
Here is a real time board (Johns Hopkins) of all Covid-19 cases, along with deaths. If you examine the plot at the lower right, it seems to be indicating (for cases in China), 1 – exp(-lambda * t) approach to an upper asymptote (saturation and approach to a maxima). I would like to see better correspondence before saying this, and I certainly don’t go on record with this analysis saying this. I’m paid for my analysis, and I’m getting nothing for this post.
Seeing approach to an upper asymptote would be a good thing, but it requires intensive, aggressive isolation and containment, including stay-at-home workers, travel restrictions, and absolute border controls.
As to how to prepare for this, it all depends on your perspective. If you believe this doesn’t even approach the deadliness or risk of the common cold or flu, there would be no preparation necessary except to wash your hands and cover your mouth when coughing. If you believe this is TEOTWAWKI, you won’t be able to do enough preparations.
Not that I’m some sort of expert, but I said I was posting this for a good friend. I don’t recommend anything beyond your usual preparations. Do you have guns and ammunition? You should anyway. Do you have freeze dried and canned foods, oatmeal and grits, and other things that are non-perishable? You should anyway. Do you have means to filter and purify water? You should anyway. Do you have batteries and multiple means of fire starter? You should anyway.
So if you’re just now beginning to think about being prepared, ask yourself why that’s the case.
I do have one very specific recommendation. Our buddy Matt Bracken stated that he had purchased “rubber gloves.” This is a good idea, but we need to be more specific than that. There is a big difference between Nitrile gloves, Butyl rubber gloves, Polyvinyl chloride gloves, and Latex gloves.
Nitrile gloves protect the skin well against nonpolar solvents. They offer good cut and abrasion resistance, and are often used in medical applications due to puncture resistance. They are ineffective against some polar solvents. Butyl rubber gloves are ineffective against nonpolar solvents but protect well against polar solvents. Polyvinyl Chloride gloves protect against water solutions, acids, some polar solvents and caustics, but not well against nonpolar solvents. Latex – natural rubber – is ineffective against nonpolar solvents, but offers good cut and abrasion resistance against water solutions and polar solvents.
This is all very complicated. If you’re not sure which you need, or what the risk is (water solution, acid, caustic, polar or nonpolar solvents), then look it up. If you can’t, double up on gloves to ensure protection against unknown agents. Nitrile gloves offer good puncture resistance. They are cheap, they can be found at your local hardware store, and they can be used in concert with other gloves to protect against most agents. Get some.
Also get breathing air protection. Be able to filter the air you breath. Very fine filtration media (HEPA filters would only be available for full face respirators SCBAs and are expensive), combined with charcoal filters is your best bet. By the way, activated charcoal filter fines are made in Sri Lanka by charcoaling green coconut shells. Consider logistics and location.
On March 2, 2020 at 5:28 am, WiscoDave said:
I can’t remember where I came across it but Matt Bracken was looking into making masks from HEPA filters from vacuum cleaner bags. Might be worth trying to find and check on his progress and success.
On March 2, 2020 at 6:27 am, Matt said:
I agree that the curve of infections linked to resembles a classic exp(-lamba * t). While an exact analytical expression may be more complex with higher order components, it is probably a good back of the napkin model.
Of course the level at which it asymptotically levels off will depend upon the (forcing function) level at which people are willing and able to self isolate to limit the spread. Unfortunately, I suspect that the culture of the US is ill suited to this. We saw the draconian measures taken in China, which would be socially and politically impossible here.
On March 2, 2020 at 7:00 am, Roger J said:
One minor correction: most of our generic prescription meds come from India, but are made with China-sourced chemicals and intermediates. We can expect massive shortages soon, as satellite photos show that Chinese air emissions have dropped dramatically, i.e., their industry is shutting down. So if you are on heart, blood pressure or diabetes meds, get as much as you can NOW before the supply runs dry. Ditto for any other conditions in which lack of meds will cause a dramatic decline in health.
On March 2, 2020 at 9:19 am, Fred said:
I like the JH tracker page.
With 89198 confirmed
and 45175 recovered
and 3048 fatalities
That leaves 40975 hot cases
The death rate remains 3.4 percent. 89198 total with 3048 deaths, however, there are hot cases that will either recover or, heaven forbid, die. 2 weeks ago the death rate was 2.2 percent, using the same calculations. I think that the death rate data should smooth out, but at what final rate we don’t know yet. Third world nations will likely be adversely affected (making the virus a total racist, obtw) so death rate by country and even within areas of countries will be higher than other areas. I’m watching these numbers closely because, Death Rate is the number that matters from which to extrapolate scenarios.
One thing about this is the quality of Health Care where you live. My area is exceptional in that workers actual work, know what they are doing, get things done in a timely manner with a pleasant attitude, etc. You get one guess as to why.
I’m not one born with the maffs acumen, so corrections or observations are welcome.
On March 2, 2020 at 9:35 am, Ned2 said:
This thing could overwhelm every hospital in the country with just 100K infected. That means NO TREATMENT for anyone.
We do have a culture in the west however that tends to be more hygienic in our every day endeavors. Chinese culture is different, they live in more overcrowded conditions and don’t practice the safe talking distance like westerners.
On March 2, 2020 at 10:58 am, Slapalottapuss said:
Not to sound too picky but an SCBA would not have a filter. Self Contained Breathing Apparatus uses compressed breathing air similar to what a fireman would wear.
On March 2, 2020 at 11:28 am, Herschel Smith said:
Nope. Not picky at all. I was flat out wrong. I meant “full face respirator.” Revised with strikethrough.
On March 2, 2020 at 11:49 am, penses said:
Economic terrorism, plain and simple. Just another scam to try to coup Trump.
The average flu strains kill 150-200 people a day in the US. Most are elderly with compromised immune systems over 80 yrs old. Between 50,000 and 100,000 people die from the flu every year in the US,
AGE
DEATH RATE FOR THE CORNY VIRUS:
80+ years old
14.8% dr
70-79 years old
8.0% dr
60-69 years old
3.6% dr
50-59 years old
1.3% dr
40-49 years old
0.4% dr
30-39 years old
0.2% dr
20-29 years old
0.2% dr
10-19 years old
0.2% dr
0-9 years old
no fatalities
No trends in Africa at all.
To a rational person it is not even a blip on the radar. The left’s best weapon is panic and it seems to be working.
On March 2, 2020 at 2:35 pm, dds said:
A lot of the above analysis is using figures we’ve been given by the Chinese government which may be telling us no more than what they want us to know.
Be advised that “may” in this context is used as in “the Pope may be Catholic.”
On March 2, 2020 at 2:39 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@dds,
If you’d like to contribute original data in lieu of what you’re calling suspect data, feel free to do so.
The focus here is on preps.
On March 2, 2020 at 3:09 pm, penses said:
RE: dds at 2:35 pm
What government does it matter. They all lie. Examine the data, throw out the chaff and run with what you’ve got. The FACT is that more people will die of the common flu than the corny virus.
The swine flu vaccine killed more people than the swine flu. Another coverup.
And those masks you’re talking about are worthless. They are only good in a structured controlled environment [surgery rooms, labratorys, etc]. If they worked the Chinese would be “epidemic” free.
China is a third world country with first world spending habits. Industry is fueled by coal and fuel oil, and they plan on doubling their steam powered capacity. Their cities are constantly black with smog. This toxic air has weakened their lungs creating millions of victims with a weakened resistance that can be found no where else in the world. You could see it in this country in the Kentucky and West Virginia coal mining communities for decades. Its ugly. Africa on the other hand has no debilitating smog due to lack of “dirty air” and no “epidemic.” 2+2=5
The deep state’s State Department “flu” in a plane load of “carriers” against Trumps direct orders and they are bragging about it. An orchestrated fake “pandemic” to impose more rules which will never be eased.
Remember the Patriot Act. The mantra of the left: Never let a “crisis” go to waste. Every law, ordinance or edict lessens your liberty and confines your activities and thoughts.
Of course the corny virus could be God laughing at the worlds leaders:
“[2] The kings of the earth stood up, and the princes met together, against the Lord and against his Christ. [3] Let us break their bonds asunder: and let us cast away their yoke from us. [4] He that dwelleth in heaven shall laugh at them: and the Lord shall deride them. [5] Then shall he speak to them in his anger, and trouble them in his rage.–Book of Psalms, 2-5
The venerable Pope Joke, Vicar of Pedophiles on Earth, Jorge Bergoglio may have contracted the “dreaded” virus himself. Could it be because he is destroying the Catholic Church in China by supporting the dog-killing atheists.
The Lord works in mysterious ways, his wonders to behold.
On March 2, 2020 at 3:38 pm, Fred said:
JH qualifies their own data. I clearly stated that the data I used was JH but, no doubt, lot’s of that data is Chicom data.
On March 2, 2020 at 4:40 pm, dds said:
@ Herschel Smith
“The focus here is on preps.”
Agreed.
But, in order to prepare in any rational manner one must be able to come to some reasonable assessment of the risk. And yes, all governments lie if and when they think its to their advantage to do so. The Gulf of Tonkin fiasco would be only one example.
I suspect data from multiple sources will become available as the virus’ spread involves more people in more places. In the mean time one can and should take reasonable steps to make sure the worst of the bad “stuff” happens to someone else.
“At least once every human should have to run for his life, to teach him that milk does not come from supermarkets, that safety does not come from policemen, that ‘news’ is not something that happens to other people. He might learn how his ancestors lived and that he himself is no different–in the crunch his life depends on his agility, alertness, and personal resourcefulness.” ― Robert A. Heinlein
Speaking of prepping, any idea how many of the “chicken little” folks waiting in line to buy a mask that has no chance of protecting against COVID19 have bothered to get a flu shot?
On March 2, 2020 at 6:58 pm, penses said:
The swine flu vaccine killed more people than the swine flu should be a red flag to anyone wanting to get vaccinated. There is also a correlation between Autism and vaccinations. Another coverup.
Vaccines don’t work. The CDC’s official position is “the data is inconclusive and the vaccine could give you the flu” but they tell you take the vaccines anyway along with the witch’s brew of mercury and other toxic poisons embedded in it because BIG PHARMA is our friend.
Studies done on the HIV epidemic and the black plague indicate that having the right DNA is the most important factor in resisting disease.
The Red Cross did not screen blood administered to patients during the height of the spread of HIV. Some people receiving transfusions were dying of HIV while others never got a cold. In the patients receiving transfusions who never got sick the resistance factor was traced back to the HIV resistant DNA in those patients that gave them the advantage.
In England records showed that certain areas of the country were blessed, because there is not other word for it, in avoiding the 25% death rate most of England and Europe were experiencing from the Black Death. They traced it back to plague resistant DNA.
The government says “turn in your guns” and people protest. They tell you take a vaccine and people line up. Go figure.
On March 2, 2020 at 8:03 pm, Guesty McGuesterson said:
Here in SoCal, the news is recommending that everyone have a minimum of 2 weeks of food, water, and supplies in case of local pandemic and road shutdown, or if your employer forces you to stay home and not report to work for the duration. Always good advice, especially here in earthquake country. Last night I was doing normal shopping and went to the water aisle to throw a few more jugs in the cart to top off my supply (already have three weeks’ worth at times, anyway).
My point? The shelves were mostly depleted, and the woman in front of us had her cart filled up with only water jugs.
On March 2, 2020 at 8:15 pm, penses said:
Good info on the governments planned plague…
helenaglass.wpcomstaging.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-perspective/
and the CDC’s mission to create panic.
naturalnews.com
On March 2, 2020 at 8:45 pm, penses said:
Hot off the presses:
Antibiotics are working on the CORNY virus and not anti-virals, which poses the question, is it a virus.
On March 3, 2020 at 8:43 am, penses said:
Coronavirus Update III: Secondary Peak and Freak. If your into graphs you’ll love this.
wmbriggs.com/post/29566
On March 3, 2020 at 1:08 pm, penses said:
Good source for Corny virus info and deep state shenanigans.
On March 3, 2020 at 1:10 pm, penses said:
Opps, brain f–t. I’ll try again.
greatgameindia.com
On March 4, 2020 at 7:08 pm, penses said:
Kung fu flu. Sounds like a plot for a TV series or government propaganda.
europeansworldwide.wordpress.com/2020/02/29/kung-fu-flu-overblown-by-mainstream-
On March 5, 2020 at 12:17 pm, penses said:
https://www.dailywire.com/news/328-chinese-nationals-caught-trying-to-illegally-enter-u-s-at-southern-border?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=benshapiro
On March 5, 2020 at 12:46 pm, penses said:
This kungfu virus reminds me of the 2000 internet collapse. People were buying generators by the handful, just knowing the power grid was going to go down due to…what. LOL.
Demand For ‘Zombie Apocalypse’ Bunkers Soars Six Fold Since Coronavirus Outbreak – Summit News