Updated Covid-19 Graph
BY Herschel Smith
4 years, 7 months ago
I’ve updated my Covid-19 graph. I’ve started tracking active cases as well as confirmed cases. Active cases are in red. It’s as close to perfect as I can get it, and the fit hasn’t changed since my last post of the curve.
On April 1, 2020 at 7:34 am, Will said:
Could you plot these on a log scale? Better representation of growth rate and potential curve flattening.
On April 1, 2020 at 5:17 pm, William said:
Rather than fitting to a cubic, a better underlying model to fit would be to the logistic function.
On April 1, 2020 at 5:56 pm, Herschel Smith said:
With a correlation coefficient of 0.9974.
Okay. Purchase me TableCurve-2D for my laptop and I’ll perform and find the best of 5000 curve fits on a daily basis.
Or pay me to do the analysis.
Withstanding that, what I’ve done is good enough.
On April 1, 2020 at 6:24 pm, William said:
I’m not saying that you don’t have a great fit of a cubic to the data. You do.
My point was that the underlying epidemiologic process will follow the logistic curve, rather than a cubic (or parabola or whatever polynomial you want to throw at it), as the underlying pandemic process is logistic. At some point in the future, the confirmed cases will diverge away from a polynomial fit.
Excel can fit the data to a logistic curve, but no, I’m not invested enough to pay you to do that :)
On April 1, 2020 at 6:44 pm, Herschel Smith said:
I have said REPEATEDLY that I’ll have to amend this as it goes. My claim has been and continues to be that this may or may not follow a standard epidemiological curve. I don’t want to hear another reader tell me that “all you have to do is look at the CDC models.” I don’t care about CDC models. I have my own.
The public gets a vote. Public behavior makes a difference, and this is an interesting study to me whether the public amends behavior, or just how this all plays out.
This isn’t the last curve I’ll generate, nor the last form/fit function.
On April 1, 2020 at 9:20 pm, George 1 said:
Behavior will make a huge impact. The country today has much less social capitol than it once did. Much less of a belief in Patriotism. Christianity does not hold as much sway as previously. Much of this owing to globalization and willingness to allow foreigners to rule over us. Many, maybe most, wanted globalization. Well, here it is. This is what it looks like. I remember when Bill Clinton pushed NAFTA and GATT with the Republicans including Rush Limbaugh cheering it on. No one had a problem, except a few of us who were called nasty names, with China being admitted to the WTO.
Hell most of Congress today will actively try to go back to business as usual internationally once they get past this if it can be got past. Everyone should study to become familiar with Calcutta. That is close to the future.
On April 2, 2020 at 8:17 am, Ned2 said:
It’s time to tell China to fuck off and die. How do we justify buying almost all of our pharmaceuticals from a communist country? What is wrong with this picture?
It’s bad enough they’ve swamped the marketplace with cheap crap for the last few decades, most of which sits in a landfill after a short time. When will we wake up?