Statistical Model Indicates Trump Actually Won Majorities in Five Disputed States and 49.68 Pecent of the Vote in a Sixth
BY Herschel Smith
4 years ago
1. Our model explains 96% of county-level variance in Trump’s two-party vote share with four demographic variables (non-college white, college-educated white, black and hispanic) and one historical variable (the average of county-level GOP two-party presidential vote share, 2004-2016). All five variables are highly significant. This reinforces the conclusion that the model is generally a very strong predictor of vote shares, and so deviations from it should be considered surprising.
2. Under conservative assumptions, regression analysis shows Trump ought to have won AZ, GA, NV, PA, WI.
3. Every one of the contested states shows a larger predicted vote share for Trump than what he actually received. This is surprising, because in any set of observations, random chance might expect some predictions to favor Biden, but none do. In Georgia and Arizona, the model does not predict a narrow race, but a decisive Trump victory; the size of the anomaly is (much) larger than the reported margin of victory.
4. The model also performs well in battleground states that have not been contested, and thus where the election was presumably clean. Every one of these is correctly predicted, including both battleground states that voted for Trump (e.g. Ohio, Florida) and those that voted for Biden (e.g. New Hampshire). Indeed, there are no states that Trump won which the model predicts should have been won by Biden. Meanwhile, the errors in the model are constructed to average to zero, so the model cannot favor one candidate over the other. Instead, it reveals the places where actual outcomes differ the most from our predictions.
5. The model is robust to alternative specifications of the regression formula and weighting.
6. The model places the burden of proof on fraud skeptics to explain why nearly all the states where fraud has been alleged, and only those states, have results inconsistent with statistical trends in the rest of the country.
7. Our model highlights the importance of a systematic comparison of all counties in the US when trying to understand whether the contested states are actually unusual. Simply picking isolated comparison cities, or one-off comparisons to past elections, is a very inferior way of doing the comparison. This model takes this base intuition (which is actually good), but greatly improves it by making the comparison systematic. The fact that the contested states are mostly predicted to have been won by Trump using simple but powerful demographic models further adds weight to the existing evidence that these outcomes may have been altered by fraud.
Data and full analysis at the link. Joe Biden is a fraud. The constitution is a dead document. The federal government is completely illegitimate, front to back, side to side, top to bottom. You do not live in a republic. The USA should be referred to as the former USA, or FUSA.
|
|
On December 16, 2020 at 5:02 am, Old Bill said:
God help us, however this plays out.
On December 16, 2020 at 9:51 am, George 1 said:
It is very frustrating to me that when you lay out these facts for others many look at you like you have two heads. They get their information from cable news I guess, as do the courts of jurisdiction for this fraud.
On December 16, 2020 at 12:02 pm, Sisu said:
Agree – the federal government is wholly illegitimate, due to pervasive corruption and fatal blockages from “unchallenged, unconstitutional laws” due to SCOTUS’ incurable case of stare decisis (despite the fact that it has never had other than fallible humans doling out “decisions”), and the three cancers of ever expanding unlawful administrative laws and unionized work-forces, and a generally uneducated, uninformed, self-interested electorate.
The Constitution needs to be “resuscitated”.
The cure is an aggressive approach to the cancers, but unfortunately the treatment protocols currently available appear to be no better than the medieval approaches to curing the ill and insane – bloodletting and head splitting. …
I continue to pray that G-d will forgive and restore us through individuals pursuing alternative approaches. …
On December 16, 2020 at 12:17 pm, Ned said:
The Arizona Republican leadership did nothing when a senate seat was stolen by Democrats “finding” votes in 2018. McSally took a dive and didn’t complain.
That emboldened the deep state – heck – no objections or recounts – let’s do it again! Republicans be like “Trust the system.”
Happened again in Arizona this past election McSally takes a dive with no complaints, and Trump somehow loses.
Starting to believe McSally is the designated loser.
At least this time the Arizona Senate will supposedly issue subpoenas to inspect and audit Dominion machines in Maricopa County.
On December 16, 2020 at 4:27 pm, Matt Bracken said:
This is just my take, but I think many folks will benefit from reading the linked article titled:
“Obama’s Secret Stay Behind Army”
AKA: The Department of the Deep State
by Marty Robinson, Oct. 31, 2019
It’s the most powerful three-letter agency in government.
More powerful than the CIA, the NSA and the FBI.
In fact, it’s so powerful it has its own seal and its own flag.
The Senior Executive Service, or “SES,” was created on September 19, 1979 during the Carter administration.
It was originally formed to professionalize career civil service, while attracting the nation’s best and brightest in an effort to improve and modernize the management of the federal bureaucracy.
A position within the “SES” is considered the equivalent to general officer or the flag officer ranks in the U.S. Armed Forces.
For that reason, they are often referred to as our “civilian generals.”
[Please read it all at the link. Here is my take: most conservatives are basically ethical, and I think most Rats are basically unethical. That is, the Rat version of ethics is the Marxist “the ends justify the means.” So among the SES, the conservatives don’t coordinate efforts under the table, but the Rats do. This gives them tremendous unseen power. This is how “the right cases” wind up before “the right judges,” or how all the most corrupt Leftists wind up leading the FBI, for just two quick examples. This Leftist SES coordination is the true unseen power moving the federal govt.]
https://stpaulresearch.com/2019/10/31/obamas-secret-stay-behind-army/
On December 16, 2020 at 4:30 pm, JG said:
It is clear Trump won and there was fraud by the Democrats. If Trump is not placed in his second term I believe the GOP will go the way of the Whigs. No one in the USA will trust the election system and the political parties on either side. I feel that CW2 will start as the country crumbles.
On December 16, 2020 at 4:42 pm, Herschel Smith said:
@Matt,
Thanks and I saw that article. I intend to link it tonight and make comments. I still don’t believe there was nothing Trump could have done, but I’ll have more comments tonight.
Rex Tillerson essentially fired an entire floor of State Department employees, i.e., the 7th floor. They were among the group you cited.
Oddly, Tillerson was the only one who actually acted like he wanted to clean out the deep state, and he and Trump didn’t get along and Trump fired him.
If there was nothing that could have been done, how did Tillerson manage to oust an entire floor from the State building, the secret society of deep staters who had meetings among themselves without anyone else there to develop policy, and without the approval of the Sec of State?
On December 16, 2020 at 5:28 pm, Fred said:
Trump was one of the weakest presidents in history. He reminds me of Carter.
On December 16, 2020 at 5:33 pm, Berglander said:
Context.
http://www.thegreatstory.org/glubb.pdf
Nothing new in the world, folks. Look ahead to what’s next.
On December 16, 2020 at 5:45 pm, butch said:
Given that the public and our political class is innumerate, this won’t affect a thing.
On December 16, 2020 at 6:08 pm, Seamrog said:
I live in the Atlanta area. Our traffic is horrible, and I listen to a local talk radio station for traffic updates. You may or may not know rino never Trumper shitlib Erick Erickson – created the website “Redstate,” sold it, and then immediately set up another site. He hosted the Redstate convention, had invited Trump, along with the other candidates at the time to participated, and then ‘uninvited’ him when the Billy Bush tape came out…the one where he admitted that many women ‘let famous people grab them by the…’ He was never Trump from the beginning, as was I. He swore up and down that Trump would never win, and anyone who supported him was an idiot.
Fast forward to the current debacle. Erickson cannot spit out of his mouth fast enough that anyone who believes ‘election fraud’ is an idiot, a right wing conspiracy theorist, or a white supremacist.
These anomalies, almost astronomically statistically impossible, occurred because suburban white women in Atlanta don’t like Trump. Nothing to see here, move on.
These guys have been part of the problem from day one.
On December 16, 2020 at 7:11 pm, Bill Buppert said:
There is no answer but partition.
On December 17, 2020 at 5:08 pm, John Costello said:
Most people these days cannot do simple math, much less understand statistics. They will never get it.