The Tangled Web Of Analysis On The Russian Military Operations In Ukraine
BY Herschel Smith
2 years, 9 months ago
I consider it to be virtually impossible to get real news or even good analysis of the situation in Ukraine from the legacy media. The propaganda and disinformation is far too thick – from all sides, including our own. You can safely ignore most of it.
But this may be the most tangled analysis I’ve ever seen, and it’s symbolic of the sort of thing you’d read at the Small Wars Journal. I’ll only give you the summary paragraph.
Despite the political influence of Ukraine’s veteran constituency, popular support for Ukraine’s far-right paramilitary forces is negligible. Biletsky and other members of far-right parties lost their seat in Ukraine’s Parliament—the Verkhovna Rada—in 2019. However, fascist paramilitary organizations could expand significantly in the wake of a Russian invasion. Ongoing civilian resistance training grant these organizations the opportunity to create widespread recruitment pools in the general populace. Further to that, a defeated democratic Ukraine would face a legitimacy crisis that extremist organizations like Azov and Right Sector could exploit to establish themselves politically, not unlike the Yugoslav Partisans in the Second World War. In this event, while NATO should refuse to recognize any Kremlin-appointed regime, it should likewise refuse to recognize any rebel Nazi government. Even if a strong opposition government led by Nazis may be enticing for the purpose of undermining a puppet regime, it would be a catastrophic mistake that would further destabilize the region and provide legitimacy to other far-right movements globally, particularly in the US.
The word Nazi is used about a 100,000 times in the commentary (I exaggerate only a little), and yet when trying to understand what a Nazi really is, there is only one URL which in effect subtly denies the very claim that the author is making. The very best one can conclude is that a Nazi is an “ultra-nationalist.”
Um … okay. I guess he means not a globalist.
Anyway, this author has a bit of twisted thinking in the summary, recommending that the U.S. take certain actions and recognize certain groups based on what he sees as a budding ultra-nationalist movement in the U.S. Literally. He recommends certain foreign policy actions based on what it might portend for groups he’s afraid of in the U.S.
You can’t make this sort of thing up. This passes for “analysis” at SWJ.
I think he should give his college degrees back and sue them for breach of contract. I’ve seen bad stuff before at SWJ, but never anything quite like this. It sounds like a college freshman at Georgetown wrote it.
On February 25, 2022 at 1:28 am, Dan said:
The opposite of a globalist could be a nationalist. And Nazi is a euphemism for National Socialist….so the description while not totally accurate could be at least in the ballpark. But it’s become so complicated you need a program to know who all the players are.
On February 25, 2022 at 7:46 am, Hudson H Luce said:
“The 2019 Ukrainian presidential election was held on 31 March and 21 April in a two-round system.
There were a total of 39 candidates for the election on the ballot. The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia and the occupation of parts of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast prevented around 12% of eligible voters from participating in the election. As no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote, a second round was held between the top two candidates, Volodymyr Zelensky, who played the role of Ukraine’s president in a popular television comedy and the incumbent president, Petro Poroshenko, on 21 April 2019. According to the Central Election Commission, Zelensky won the second round with 73.22% of the votes.[1][2][3]” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_presidential_election
They elected a comedian who “played the role of Ukraine’s president in a popular television comedy” as President. That’s the guy who is in office now.
On February 25, 2022 at 8:46 am, Herschel Smith said:
@Dan,
Hmm … IDK. I see no necessary correlation between “National Socialist” and “Ultra-nationalist,” whatever the later means.
Nationalism isn’t the same thing as socialism.
But then the commentary isn’t clear on much of anything.
On February 25, 2022 at 9:55 am, Fred said:
Herschel beat me to it. Nationalism, considering those of your own natal heritage first, isn’t the same thing as socialism which is a failed scheme of authoritarian centralized economic controls.
Honestly, I hope Ukraine nationalists destroy all comers. Globalization wrecked my country. Ukraine needs to fight to the last man.
On February 25, 2022 at 10:17 am, George 1 said:
In other words the “Far Right” is the worst thing ever. If if succeeds, even just a little, it could help those awful white supremacists in America and might be harmful to Globo Homo.
On February 25, 2022 at 11:11 am, Dov said:
NAZI stands for National Socialist. Nazis would not vote Jews into the positions of both President and Prime Minister of Ukraine, as the Ukrainians have done.
On February 25, 2022 at 12:02 pm, billrla said:
The fact that the situation in Ukraine is so confused underscores the fact that the situation in Ukraine, vis-a-vis its relationship to Russia, has always been confused. Over the years, U.S. meddling, largely by corrupt and ideologically twisted Democrats has only made the situation worse.
On February 25, 2022 at 4:48 pm, JoeFour said:
Just found this (after turning off Fox News in disgust). From the Saker blog:
“Nightvision on February 25, 2022 · at 4:10 pm EST/EDT
I have been following the conflict very closely. A few very important but random updates on KEY ISSUES:
1. Russia is now confirmed to have captured both british NLAW and American JAVELIN systems. The NLAWS they have captured multiple, and Javelin only 1 so far.
2. The citizens of many Ukrainian cities are actually posting secret ‘ambush’ locations of Ukrainian forces online in order to notify the Russian army (yes this “treason” is dangerous and brave for them to do). This has happened so far both in Kiev and Kherson/surrounding areas. This shows that many Ukrainian citizens in fact support the Russian army in liberating them from the Nazi regime.
3. Some people in the enemy sphere are commenting on the fact that initial Russian SEAD/DEAD suppression strikes were not as effective as they hoped because Ukraine continues to have some air capabilities. The reason for this is very simple, the U.S. gave Ukraine intelligence on exactly when the invasion would occur, and it has now been confirmed that the large majority of Ukrainian air assets took off on the night of the first airstrikes, went to the air, and many of them were transported to nearby Poland for safekeeping and are NOW coming back to safety. This includes (allegedly) the infamous Turkish TB2 drones as the Ukrainian side is now reporting they still have some left that have returned from hiding in Poland. There’s not much Russia can do about that, the fact that neighboring countries give aid to the enemy. When U.S. attacks a country in its many invasions unfortunately those countries usually don’t even have the luxury of having neighboring “allies” to help them conceal weapons like this, as U.S. generally turns everyone against said country via global hegemonic pressure.
4. Another important topic that many enemy analysts have been incorrectly spouting off about. Some are saying that Russia is showing inferior capabilities because they have been ‘bogged down’ and haven’t taken Kiev as quickly as they intended. I’ve prepared some numbers to give you a comparison for the purpose of context.
Russia is currently utilizing only a tiny fraction of its forces, roughly 20-30 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG’s) out of the roughly 60 it has prepared for this operation (which sit on the Russian side of the border still, waiting). This is equivalent to anywhere in the 20-40k troops count, roughly the same amount of troops as the late stage of Georgian operation. Keep in mind Russia’s entire Armed Forces is in the region of 800,000 – 1,000,000 troops (of all 3 branches) so you can get an idea what tiny fraction of Russia’s full potential is currently being used. The reason most experts are giving at the moment is Russia did not want to create mass casualties even amongst Ukrainian military/soldiers because they know that their fight is not against even the average Ukrainian soldier but rather specifically the more radicalized Nazi types. This is why Russia has held off on true “shock and awe” style campaign and has not even targeted troop massings, mostly targeting materiel and command objectives. In short, Putin is trying to achieve this campaign as “cleanly” as possible without creating generation blood-libel hatred between Ukrainians/Russians as the ultimate goal is to have the two countries as brotherhoods once again down the line, once the Nazi’s and such have been cleaned out.
So to give you an idea of how Russia’s progress so far compares:
Russia as I’ve said is using so far anywhere between about 20-50k troops vs. a Ukrainian armed forces that has total probably 200k++.
In 2003, the U.S. and “allies” had a force of 309,000 that invaded from the south of Iraq on March 21. They finally captured Bagdad in the north about 450km on April 10th. Now, Iraq is a country of about 24 million people, Ukraine is 50 million. Ukraine is also 50% larger than Iraq by pure territorial area. So it took the U.S. with 300k troops almost 3 weeks, about 20+ days to go 450km and capture the capital.
After only a single day of fighting Russia with its 20-50k troops has already reached Kiev and mostly encircled the capital.
Now onto the speed, some are claiming Russia is going “slow” and is ‘bogged down’. At the height of the famed German Blitzkrieg in June 1944, the Nazi’s progressed as much as 50km per day into Soviet Territory. But when you average their rate of progress over the course of the entire Operation Barbarossa (up until they reached Moscow) the famed “Blitzkrieg” averages to about 9km per day.
If you compute the numbers of U.S.’s invasion of Iraq that I gave, the U.S. did about 20km a day with a force of 300k troops against an army far smaller and weaker and less equipped than the Ukrainian army.
In one plus days so far, Russia on some axes, such as the southern axis from Crimea towards Mariupol or Kherson which it is now storming, has averaged approximately 50-100km per day. This is so far DOUBLE THE RATE of advance that U.S.’s allied force of 310k managed to do in beaten down Iraq and upwards of double the rate of the famed “Blitzkrieg” of WW2. You can easily see this for yourself, just go on googlemaps and use the measurement tool of kilometers towards known captured cities like Melitopol, which is 125km from Crimea (reached in about a day) or Kiev which is 110km from Belarus border and has already been encircled on at least 2-3 sides. On other axes like border to Konotop (80km) Russia progresses at a rate of 50-60km a day. Folks, these are record breaking numbers. No force in history progresses this fast. The U.S. took 3 weeks to take Bagdad which is less than 450km from Kuwait and had a force of 300k troops. Russia is doing 60-100km a day with less than 50k men. This is astounding progress on the modern battlefield that I don’t think has ever been seen before, and Russia is using only a tiny fraction of its capabilities. The forces represented here are about 10% of Russia’s entire armed forces, and anywhere from 30-50% of the forces that have been mobilized for this specific operation in general.”
On February 26, 2022 at 8:49 am, Bill Buppert said:
Small Wars Journal like so many defense related sites (The War Zone, Defense News and the awful stuff seeping out of West Point) is captive to a single over-reaching narrative: all war is good for America and we must spend as much present and future government lucre as possible to be ready for the next big or small conflict. Since the creation of the US globalist order after Russia’s defeat of Germany in the War to Save Josef Stalin, the vaunted military-industrial complex has provided the world’s richest money laundering scheme for politicians in both the production of weapons and expenditure thereof planet-wide to advance the interest of the leviathan (and by extension, Deep) state.
Sometimes the Army War College quarterly, Parameters. will publish something good but you have to wade through oceans of triumphalist messaging to get there.
Outside of Ted Galen Carpenter, everyone writing from or to the DC orbit seems to be captive the sole legitimate narrative that American use of violence in foreign policy is not only necessary but a national good.
I gave up on them years ago as a credible source of defense analysis.
Per National Socialism [with an increasingly larger communist chaser], that has been the operative political framework in the US since 1933.
On February 26, 2022 at 3:52 pm, Fred said:
“Per National Socialism [with an increasingly larger communist chaser], that has been the operative political framework in the US since 1933.”
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