Supply Side Realities
BY PGF1 year, 11 months ago
Never forget Donald J. Trump shut down the economy. And it’s “almost” as if his announcement to run for president is perfectly timed to get you to waste another two years in false hope for a human savior. Right when you realized that the entire system was lost to corruption and you were about to do amazing things to change the world around you, galvanized to take charge of all that you can, a shiny trinket of distraction is dangled in your eye. Instead of being the man you could be learning and teaching and training your family, church, or team, and growing your local group in the depth of understanding and trust for each other, honing skills and adding critical knowledge and infrastructure, they want you well distracted by politics.
According to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), there’s still very little relief in the supply pipeline for components needed to complete manufacturing and farming equipment. Consequently, there are “nearly complete” pieces of farm and construction equipment sitting on manufacturing lots waiting for components. For some, they may be as basic as a 7-pin connector for wiring harnesses. Others parts, some ordered more than a year ago, still haven’t shown up on “shipped” reports.
Some companies, like farm equipment manufacturer Unverferth has gone so far as to create “rework teams” whose jobs are to add missing components to machines that have been languishing in storage. Others have procurement staff scouring sources for acceptable component replacements.
Dealers are still battling shortages in tires, steel components and computer chips for existing customers’ equipment.
According to AEM, the situation was supposed to have improved by now, but hasn’t. They add that while it’s bad for farm equipment, it’s even worse for construction equipment. More than 95% of their members say they’re experiencing “major” supply chain issues.
If that’s not enough, suppliers and manufacturers are getting slammed with major price increases. And salaries and bonuses have also had to rise in order to get/keep factory workers.
Consequently, used farm equipment is selling at an all-time high.
A farmer with seldom-used equipment can quickly turn that gear into the cash needed to acquire equipment that’s really needed. The downside is that the “used iron” is also pricey- and getting even more so the longer shortages exist.
Farmers, being very experienced with market realities, are very aware that being forced to pay a premium for used equipment today doesn’t guarantee that same price stability a month from now. If the supply chain eases, demand for used gear will slow- and prices will fall.
So they’re following the advice Amazon’s Jeff Bezos shared last week: if you can hold off purchases, it might be a good time to do just that.
In the meantime, Purdue University’s Ag Economy Barometer reports that “insufficient supplies have impeded” producers’ overall operations. According to that barometer, farmers share another major concern with the outdoor industry: interest rate policies.
Despite farm income having rise over the past five years, farmers are still being hammered by high input (planting) costs and falling commodity prices. They’re accustomed to fluctuations in commodity prices, but the additional strain of acquisition of new gear or parts for existing gear, coupled with rising interest rates, has injected a lot more stress to an already tough profession.
“A year ago,” says Curt Blades of the AEM, “we thought the supply chain issues would have improved by now. That didn’t happen.”
There are similar stories throughout the outdoor industry as well. Last week, one manufacturer told me he was machining parts from aluminum bar stock because extrusion “isn’t an option right now.” As he explained it, “I was told that even if I had my order in right now, it would be a year before I could hope to get parts. So…I’m machining.”
The good news is that Americans are learning to adapt, innovate, and manufacture for themselves again.
Inflation is going to greatly improve your prepping. The days of throwing money at a problem by buying stuff of marginal quality and usefulness are over. The throwaway economy has made us all somewhat parasitic, and a dedicated effort is required to retrain the mind. Solid patient research is the way to go. Read reviews, ask around, pool your money for just one, and do a team evaluation of quality and usability for your purposes before buying more, perhaps. Remember, the library has free books to teach yourself new skills. Knowledge is lightweight, highly portable, flexible, adaptable, reusable, extendable, scalable, and above all, multiplies your side’s survivability and lethality.
On November 22, 2022 at 6:31 am, Joe Blow said:
Winner winner chicken dinner!!!
Why do I not believe in the Orange Jesus?
– He STILL supports the Not-Vaxx (ego aside, he HAS to see it simply doesn’t work, so the fact he still supports its use tells me he knows what it does and is IN ON IT!)
– Ergo he must be controlled opposition, as you said, “a shiny trinket of distraction is dangled in your eye.” Awful coincident timing? I mean, if _I_ wanted to mess with dems at election, I would announce JUST BEFORE midterms…
– Had his chance. NEXT BATTER UP!
– Talks election fraud, but concludes no action. Maybe you could start up an election watchdog group with your billions of dollars? No? A twitter knockoff?! Hows THAT gonna fix fake votes?
– When in office he surrounded himself with swamp critters he was NOT ignorant about (praised their longtime experience). He won the race as an outsider, and surrounded himself with insiders? Nope.
We’re all being sold a story!
… At best he’s a greedy billionaire who knows where his bread is buttered, who probably truly does love America, because he would be a poor man in any other country. At worst he’s the part of the problem meant to secure the hope you and I share, so a real opponent, doesn’t have a chance. The more I see of the man after his time in office, the more I think he is working for them. They’d have nailed his ass on trumped up charges through an impeachment trial by now if they wanted him in jail. Just like the J6 crew. This is a hollywood script, tail wagging the dog, the beat down under-dog that keeps fighting? Never seen that story before… C’mon, people, wake the fuck up!!!!!
The same people that control the levers of power in Mordor on the Potomac also control the media and movie houses, so of course the same tools will be put to use.
Just don’t tell Kanye or Mel Gibson, ya know, cuz, you can’t say that part out loud.
On November 22, 2022 at 7:38 am, HouseWolf said:
Sure would like to see evidence farm income has ‘risen’ over the last five years.
That’s absolutely NOT the case in this farm community.
To the contrary, most folks have cut back dramatically.
On November 22, 2022 at 8:49 am, PGF said:
@housewolf, he must’ve used the wrong term. He’s speaking of hourly wages, not farm income. But I agree with you, having doubts that hourly wages or inflation adjusted income are keeping pace with costs of operating or cost of living in any economic sector.
On November 22, 2022 at 11:38 am, Frank Clarke said:
Back in IBM’s glory days, they used to operate “Systems Centers” whose primary task was to respond when a customer asked how to attach a Stitzfelter 825 to an IBM 3033 channel. In some cases the Systems Center would manufacture a one-off part that did the required task,
Improvise, adapt, overcome. Still works.