This is meant to be a tactical analysis, and also to admit I was wrong about certain things a number of months (or years) ago when I discussed 5GW.
The notion behind the F-35 was communications, control of the sky, ability to leverage connection with MilStar Uplink with other air assets, command, and so forth. That’s a simplification, and for the rest of the story you can find better explanations of it online.
True enough, the F-35 program has been disastrous and it would have been better in retrospect to have reengineered and retrofitted the F-22 which was a proven platform. I also won’t hear of any talk of replacement of the A-10, which only an idiot would advocate.
However, it seems to me that the Russians are approaching the battle space as if they are fighting WWII. Ukraine, on the other hand, is using modern anti-tank rocket designs to their advantage, as well as leveraging drones to kill tanks, refueling trucks and APCs. Two things happen when the armor is found and Ukraine has the assets to attack. First, the armor gets killed. Second, the soldiers in the armor either die or quickly abandon the armor and scatter.
Russia is driving tanks and other armor in large, slow moving, laborious, lumbering columns, all of them susceptible to stand off weapons. This makes them susceptible to enfilade fires. If they break out of the lumbering columns, they splinter to the point that they are susceptible to defilade fires. Some of the targeting is being done during the daylight hours, but a lot of it is being done at night, because as I read in one account, “They can’t see us at night.” That report was specifically pertaining to civilian drones, as small as a couple of square feet, being operated by civilians, those same civilians working in military complexes and alongside military observers and tacticians. Once again for emphasis, these are civilians, using small civilian-owned drones. Frankly, I don’t think it would matter if they could see them in the daylight either. They would be looking up in the sky all the time for something that looked like smaller than a bird.
The drone usage is for surveillance and intelligence gathering. From their vantage, they can send ground pounders to use stand off anti-tank weapons or send weapons-carrying drones to perform armor killing functions. Radar cannot see these small drones.
To be sure, Russia can still use large artillery and fighter jet strikes to damage infrastructure, and they are doing just that. Also, when the battle is between ground pounders, it’s brutal, just as it always has been throughout history.
But a tank must be able to function within parameters: weight, ability keep from sinking into the ground, fuel consumption, and armor protection. The turrets and rear ends of tanks are usually much less armored than the front. It’s impossible to design a tank that has thick armor on all sides and the top. It would be logistically unsustainable and wouldn’t move. Engines would tear up, and mechanics would get shot while trying to make them work again.
It would be interesting to see how the M1A1 variants hold up under these circumstances. They might do better than the older Russian designs because they move faster, have explosive reactive armor, and are more off-road capable than the Russian tanks. But who knows?
But you can bet that tacticians in the Pentagon and at Leavenworth are today watching video very closely and asking some hard questions about heavy, lumbering warfare in light of the concepts of 5GW.
At the beginning of the discussions about 5GW, you could have colored me very skeptical. Today I’m convinced. With miniature drones the real-time intelligence and surveillance capabilities are endless. The next barrier for these drones is the use of AI to let them all talk to each other and learn from their losses and successes, operating more autonomously when they perform proper enemy ID and surveil the area for unacceptable collateral damage potential.
Another thing this shows (and I was right about this prediction) is that the Marine Corps was stupid to have ever pushed the ridiculous EFV (Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle) to the point that the Senate had to kill it for them. And they were smart to let it go when they were told no. With drones and modern rocket designs, no EFV would have ever landed on any beach, anywhere.
One thing is certain. The days of lumbering columns of tanks conducting near peer warfare on the field of battle is over forever. No one will try it again, and if they do, they’re fools.
The two things most important in this war are ground pounders and control of the skies (and not necessarily control of the skies at tens of thousands of feet).