Jacobs tells ABC11 that his friends in the ammunition industry cite the shortage of primer as being a major factor. The primer is the chemical or device that is responsible for making the bullet combust, according to Jacobs. This key ingredient is manufactured in Italy, a country devastated by COVID-19 in recent months.
“That created this huge backlog in the need for primers,” Jacobs said.
As a result, many shops are needing to raise ammo prices. Jim’s Gun Jobbery has had to raise theirs by 100 percent.
“The manufacturer or distributor has, you know, increased the price, and so, we have to turn around and market up, in order to not lose money,” Jacobs explained.
This isn’t the first time we’ve heard primers as the critical path component for the ammunition supply problem.
The DNC platform on gun control is fairly well known and is no doubt leading to frantic times.
We’ve covered a number of perspectives on the ammunition shortage, and Recoil Magazine has another one.
Demand is also driven by the same psychological factors that caused the toilet paper shortage: hoarding. According to recent research (Sheu & Kuo, 2020) “hoarding stems from a human’s response, either rationally or emotionally, to scarcity, and so may occur on either the supply or the demand side. As argued by [other researchers], hoarding can be an overall response that involves a mix of a strategic, rational and emotional human responses (such as anxiety, panic and fear) to perceived threats to supply.” That’s a smart person way of saying that when people think we’re going to run out of ammo, they buy as much as they can and sit on it, which contributes to the scarcity by artificially inflating demand.
Hold on. Full stop. There is nothing artificial about demand. This is basic economics 101. Worth and availability is determined by the value people place on a commodity. The demand is real, not artificial or imaginary.
Another factor driving increased demand, and oddly higher prices as well are the huge numbers of new gun owners entering the market. The NSSF estimates that up to 40% of the guns sold this year have been to first time gun buyers. With sales at over 8 million guns and going strong, that’s a lot of new owners buying guns. They’re also buying ammo, but unlike people who have been doing this for a while, they have no idea what ammo is “supposed” to cost. To someone who moved to Texas from LA and now they want a gun, paying $25.99 for a box of 9mm seems reasonable, because that’s just what it costs at the moment.
Hold on. Full stop. There is nothing odd about higher prices. See commentary above.
With demand driven by spikes in buying, hoarding, and new gun owners, what is the industry doing to keep up? Every company I spoke with is already at maximum capacity. Magtech is running 3 shifts, Federal is working around the clock, and the smaller guys are making ammo as fast as they can. The problem is that only a few companies produce ammo at the volumes needed – companies like Magtech and Federal, for example. They’re already at capacity, and adding capacity for a company that large is actually difficult. Adding a new line to make more 9mm ammo requires purchasing expensive machines, installing them, quality control on the new machines, and hopefully getting all that done in time to make enough ammo to pay off the cost of the new machines before the bottom drops out of the market. It’s actually easier for smaller companies to add capacity, because there are ammo manufacturing machines that produce rounds at a lower rate, which are more affordable. But these small machines produce thousands of rounds a month as opposed to the tens of millions of rounds that Winchester is manufacturing, and that won’t make a dent in the ammo shortage. It’s also important to remember that the increased consumer demand must be met along with existing government contracts. The same ammo lines that make rounds for gun shops also make rounds for federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies, and those contracts don’t disappear because it’s hard to make or source primers.
Some industry experts estimate that we won’t see a return to normal inventory levels for 12 months, even when assuming a Republican presidential victory in November. Normal inventory is defined as being able to buy as much as ammo as you want and can afford from the internet or your local retailer. Worse yet, prices may not return to pre-COVID levels for an up to 12 months after that. The long term disruption to the supply chain tends to result in increased costs for manufacturers which will get passed on to the consumer until we see a full economic recovery. Unless one of the factors causing massive demand suddenly changes or disappears, we can expect to see increased prices and rationing for some time to come.
That being the case, market disruption is the time for entrepreneurs to make strides where they would normally be crawling. Smaller ammunition manufacturing businesses now have a chance to capture part of the market otherwise dominated by big names, and with the multitude of new shooters, that stockpile of ammunition can quickly turn into a head start for competitions in the coming years. The difference between preparedness and hoarding in this world, is an ammo shortage is only a negative for the later.
The problem is that most good men don’t want to expand and blow money on producing a commodity when the long term demand may not be what it is today, and also don’t like to have to face layoffs.
I’m certain ammunition manufacturers are indeed working around the clock and operating machinery at capacity, with the boundary conditions of parts and component availability.
With all of that said, Fiocchio is bringing a $15 million ammunition manufacturing center to Little Rock, Arkansas.
LITTLE ROCK (KATV) — Fiocchio of America is opening a $15 million ammunition manufacturing center to Little Rock, state officials announced Wednesday.
The new plant will primarily manufacture centerfire ammunition, Fiocchi President Anthony Acitelli said.
Gov. Asa Hutchinson said the facility will create about 85 jobs.
“These are good-paying jobs that will make a difference in our community, and most importantly, I hope that this is a partnership that will lead to future growth down the road,” Gov. Asa Hutchinson said at a news conference announcing the plant.
The Arkansas Economic Development Commission said the company will receive five years of cash rebates worth $579,186, based on the annual payroll for new employees. It will also receive $82,407 worth of tax refunds for the project.
The company is a subsidiary of Fiochhi Ammunition, an Italian company that has been in operation since 1876.
I wish Fiocchi well. In the mean time, feel free to use comments to convey spur-of-the-moment deals on ammunition to readers. Ammoseek.com doesn’t always capture everything.
Prior:
When Will Ammo Logistics Recover?
More perspectives on the ammo shortage.
“We’ve already been told from the manufacturers mostly like, it’s looking like maybe late third quarter, maybe late fall, and it could be pushed into winter or 2021 until we get a lot of the product,” he said.
While Farhat said his store does have ammo in stock, but it’s costing more right now because he’s not able to buy it wholesale.
“We’ve had to go out and purchase through outside distributors that are able to sell us limited quantities here and there, and we just have to make do with what we can get,” he said.
That’s a lot of slush in his estimate. Of course, I wouldn’t expect the supply chain ever to catch up with demand depending on the election cycle.
Caraway said, “We get 80 to 150 guns in every day and we sell everything we get. I can’t restock. There’s not enough guns and ammunition available now.”
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Nine millimeter and .380 ammunition are the ones most affected by the shortage, he said.
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For rifles, he said, it’s the .223 and 5.56 mm.
Then there’s this interesting bit.
With Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in most polls this summer, is that part of the reason for the shortage?
No, Caraway said.
“The manufacturers do their own polls,” he said, “and they still expect Republicans to keep the White House.”
I hadn’t heard that about the manufacturer’s polls. We’ll have to see if that holds true. Even if it does, I don’t expect it to stop the violence currently being perpetrated by the communists.
My takeaways: (1) The heavier bullets (77 grains) are more effective than the 55 grain bullets, and (2) The muzzle velocity even at close range for the 10.5″ barrel hovers around 2200 FPS, right at the threshold for hydrostatic shock.
As an interesting case study, I watched and refreshed a screen for a couple of weeks at the 2aWarehouse on a sale of run-of-the-mill Winchester range ammunition in 45 ACP. The sale was 200 rounds for $85.80. For those who shoot .45 ACP, this is a fairly standard price, and excepting the shipping fees, it’s actually a fairly good deal any time at 43 cents per round.
The screen began at 1000 boxes of 200, and tonight it was at 150.
This means that for this one distributor located via Ammoseek.com, for one caliber, for one brand, 200,000 more pistol rounds are in the hands of ordinary Americans within about two weeks.
Range ammo or PD, it makes no difference. That tells you something about what’s happening in America, more than you can learn from any MSM outlet even on a good day.
Readers have no doubt encountered a severe ammunition shortage, affecting no only local supplies but online supplies as well. There are some good explanations for this, some of which I didn’t suspect.
“I can’t keep guns on the shelf,” Carr said. “And I can’t find the guns to replace the ones I’ve sold. It’s the same thing with ammo, especially for the pistols, like the 9s, 38s, 380s – they’re not there. Our vendors don’t have them either. We’ve been advised to order our hunting rounds because it’s not going to be there as they’re trying to fill the pistol ammo that they’re already behind on.”
We’ve actually learned something else besides the affect of political climate. First time gun buyers are purchasing primarily pistols. In order to use them, they need ammunition. Apparently, manufacturers are retooling to supply that ammunition.
So hunters needing 7mm magnum, 6.5 Creedmoor, .308 and 30-06, should go ahead and try to scrounge up those rounds now. They won’t be available for long. That also goes for AR-10 operators.
Next up, the logistics chain.
“As far as the ammo is concerned, the number one thing you have to have in order to make ammunition is raw materials, being lead and copper,” Kastner said. “So all of the lead mines in the United States are in the state of Missouri; Missouri shut them down the first of March. All of the copper mines are in South America; South America shut them down in April. … The lead mines are now open in Missouri, but getting copper for the casings is one of the choking points.”
When you tell workers to go home, production stops. The next thing we learn in this same article is what happened when the manufacturers eventually did open back up.
“A lot of the manufacturers were closed for a few months, and then they opened up and had to social distance inside their plants, so maybe every other machine may work instead of all of them,” Latsha said. “So their capacity is down below half and demand is up 400% because there’s a huge shortage. … All the rioting and things going on … people are scared. And then when a shortage starts, anytime somebody thinks there’s not going to be any they all run out to get some.”
The manufacturers are not at full production capacity.
So when you combine intense demand, with choked logistics chains, on top of manufacturers operating at partial capacity, it leads to a problem.
Will this return to normal? That remains to be seen. I’m not a prophet.
I have a Remington R1 1911 chambered in .45 ACP. Arthritis has invaded my hands and it’s getting harder for me to rack the slide. Would putting a lighter recoil spring in it be a bad idea? The factory recoil spring is 16 pounds. I bought a 12-pound spring for it, just to see if it solved my racking problem, and it did. I haven’t shot it yet, and I would like to get a knowledgeable opinion on it before doing so. The only thing I have been told so far about putting the lighter spring in it is that the recoil would be increased. I’m not as worried about that as I am about risking unnecessary damage to my pistol. While I’m sure other shooters have this same difficulty, I don’t know anyone in my area who does. Any insight and/or suggestions regarding how to tackle this challenge would be greatly appreciated.
Larry Jones, via e-mail[ … ]
While the recoil spring helps to attenuate recoil of the pistol, its main job is to return the slide forward, which strips the next round off the magazine and fully closes the pistol with the barrel and slide locked together, ready to fire the next shot.
The first thing I would do to aid in the function of the gun and help to prevent impact damage of the internal parts is to add a Wilson Combat Shok-Buff, or equivalent, to the recoil-spring guide for the lighter recoil spring to rest against. The Shok-Buff is a polymer shock absorber designed to help prevent slide and frame battering as they transition through the cycle of operation.
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Keep in mind the recoil spring and Shok-Buff are being worked hard with the lower-power rating of the spring and should be replaced at 500-round intervals or when obvious signs of wear are evident. The Shok-Buff will start to lose its shape and the recoil-spring length will shorten by several coils, indicating it’s time to replace them.
To begin with, I’m no stranger to severe RA in my hands. Mostly, my right hand (shooting hand) is affected. It is affected to the point that my hand appears deformed, and I usually hide it when I meet people. It helps to put my hand in my pocket.
RA is caused by the same affliction as Psoriasis, that is, an overactive and confused immune system. My immune system thinks my cartilage is a foreign object and attacks it, making scar tissue of it. I have thus far refused to take a biologic like Methotrexate, and so I simply make it by day to day.
So I sympathize in the superlative with the writer. With that said, I find no discomfort in shooting .45 ACP. I enjoy it more than shooting any other round, and I enjoy shooting a 1911 more than any other firearm. I also find that the best thing for me is to exercise, and that means not being courteous to my RA. The more I can push myself, the better off I am.
One of my [modified] 1911s came with an 18# spring, not 16#. I didn’t know that the Remington came with a 16# spring. That seems a little light to me. Readers may recall that I replaced my 18# spring with a 22# spring from Wolff Gunsprings for my trip to the Weminuche Wilderness. I did that so that I can shoot 450 SMC out of that gun, achieving 1120 FPS with 230 grain bullets (the 450 SMC has to be purchased from Double Tap Ammunition). I still have that gun modified that way, although it’s an easy spring switch to change it back if I wanted to.
I also find that it eats all other .45 ACP ammunition flawlessly. The heavier spring doesn’t cause problems with normal bulk range ammunition, although I wouldn’t shoot 450 SMC out of my other 1911s without a similar spring modification.
Double Tap and Buffalo Bore make very hot .45 ACP +P ammunition (~ 1000 FPS), and the heavier spring would work well with that choice. If I switched to a light spring, like the analyst said, I would want to make sure I had put it through its paces to see what ammunition worked well with it.
As RA progresses, I wouldn’t be opposed to changing to a lighter spring, but I’m a long way from that.