I appreciate Herschel allowing the leeway to post items about the economy. Instead of posting articles about the sky falling and The Big Crash that’s always about to happen any day now (one day, those folks will be correct), we’ve tried to provide actionable forward-looking information to give you an indicator of what’s around the corner for the markets that affect you and your family. The object is to offer education and insight into the next several months so you can plan and prepare.

We’ve written a few posts, two here and here, using technical market analysis that pointed to the current recession. This recession we warned you about in the spring is underway (despite the fascists ‘official’ pronouncements to the contrary) and will worsen in the coming months. We predicted the current market downturn and recession based on the analysis of inflation and the formation of technical market patterns.

This time we’re looking at historical information. We’re predicting a stock market second leg lower soon, coupled with a marked economic downturn in the coming four to six months, give or take. The history is boring, and only wonks care, but the fed has been raising interest rates in recent months from the floor of near zero. This will cause a sharper downturn in the coming months into next year. Of course, everything could change tomorrow, but lower stocks and a deeper recession loom.

We think the last month or so in the stock markets have only been a short-term bounce in the ongoing drawdown, and new lows will be seen in the coming several months. As we’ve mentioned here at TCJ, these things create a feedback loop. Cause and effect get muddled, but the trend remains downward, as far as we can tell.

So far, the housing market has remained strong. We don’t think this will hold, again, using historical information. In my area, the housing market has been white hot. I know one gentleman who got 50k over asking before listing. The housing market has been pretty exuberant for the past couple of years in the country’s growing regions. That can’t last indefinitely. Housing is very likely to fall soon as well. Note: often, housing as a market falls relative to itself, which means that it levels off or goes to near zero growth in either existing home sales, new home builds, or both.

We just thought you should know so you can prepare.

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More items of interest in economics:

This article at CNBC constitutes an informal pre-announcement from government outlets of the deepening recession.

Steve Hanke [Johns Hopkins University Economist ] says we’re going to have one ‘whopper’ of a recession in 2023

“18 And all things are of God, who hath reconciled us to himself by Jesus Christ, and hath given to us the ministry of reconciliation; 19 To wit, that God was in Christ, reconciling the world unto himself, not imputing their trespasses unto them; and hath committed unto us the word of reconciliation. 20 Now then we are ambassadors for Christ, as though God did beseech you by us: we pray you in Christ’s stead, be ye reconciled to God. 21 For he hath made him to be sin for us, who knew no sin; that we might be made the righteousness of God in him.” – 2 Corinthians 5:18-21

In verse 18 above, we learn that all things are of God; He has made everything, and all things were made for Him (Colossians 1:16-17). He is the Creator, but this very same God has sought reconciliation through His Son, Jesus Christ.

Under this ministry of reconciliation, one would naturally ask; why is reconciliation necessary? What was the schism? That word schism holds a connotation, but understand that the very first religious breach, the very first split, was sin against Holy God by the first man. The covenant had been broken; a parting must have been accomplished. The Creator is holy and righteous, and man had taken on the nature of sin and became an enemy against his Maker. Man, having become a sinner and losing his disposition of grace, God could not have allowed perfect sinlessness to continue. Indeed, the corruption of sin had ended the holy communion between God and man.

This break brought guilt, shame, sorrow, and fear, all brand new to man who had dwelled in the love of God uncorrupted. It was man that broke the relationship, devastated by his error, filled with the horror of seeing himself in light of his sin, and knowing, better than any man, just how holy and perfect God was to him, he fled from the face of God. And here you are today, attempting to escape from the countenance of God lest the punishment you deserve come upon you. Nonetheless, God knows us and our sin, the wrath of God is inescapable.

Verse 18 continues, “who hath reconciled us to himself by Jesus Christ” It’s not that God has met you halfway; in fact, He owes no such thing as the extension of His hand anew. God didn’t even meet us three-quarters or four-fifths of the way. He didn’t have to offer the consideration of friendship again, but God did it all. He accomplished everything necessary for you to be brought back, reconciled into love and fellowship, holy communion again, and peace. Ah, blessed peace; to have it again under the guiding wing of God that destruction would befall us no more: just as the bird of prey gathers eaglets in the nest, oh how God longs to summon you to Himself under the protection of His holy love.

God was in Christ (verse 19). Jesus said, “I and my Father are one.” – John 10:30. God was reconciling the world to Himself by Jesus Christ, not seeking to impute His wrath for our sin but seeking for His own, looking for His lost sheep gone astray, forgiving our trespasses for breaking the covenant and leaving Him, oh that man would cease to flee from the great God of creation and turn to face His Son! We still today, witnesses for Jesus Christ, messengers of the Gospel, ambassadors of peace by God, cry to all those who would hear Him: be ye reconciled to God, by Jesus Christ!

Christ did it all; the wrath of the Father was poured out upon Jesus on the cross: Jesus was sinless, yet under torture for you, dying for your sin. The Son of God went all the way to the depths of making Himself one of His creatures, becoming man yet without sin; He came to get you and bring you back home into the grace of Father God.

“For thus saith the Lord GOD; Behold, I, even I, will both search my sheep, and seek them out.” – Ezekiel 34:11

That’s the love He has for you. That He came looking for you, though you deserve it not, though you had trespassed His holy name, He desires you as a son that deeply. God was in Christ looking for His own to make them a people. He’s looking for you today. It’s no casual mention. And it’s no idle offer; God did call you and seek for you and search, sending His own Son so that you might see how serious He is about bringing you back into the household of God.

God is showing you how He made Christ to be sin, that you might be made straight with Him. That’s the exchange, your sin, for the righteousness of God; what an offer. And Jesus rose again on the third day, fulfilling the Scriptures and proving that the most fantastic dawn of history had arrived; the reconciliation of God by Christ, to all who would hear, to you. All you have to do, for Christ did it all, is accept the righteousness of God as His gift. Flee from Him no more, prevailing in Christ, made right in His sight: be ye reconciled to God.

Replace “Biden Maladministration” with Washington DC since Reagan first gave amnesty, and you’re set. The author, bless his heart*, is still living in the fog of delusion about the Republicans. He’ll learn, after decades of betrayal, they all do. That’s another topic.

The collapsing border disaster under the Biden Maladministration is a live topic of international consequence today. Many well meaning Christians believe it is wrong to keep refugees out on a temporary basis because they believe borders are man-made constructs lacking biblical warrant. Besides the contradiction obvious in their having homes with walls and locked doors, their argument does not hold.

Established borders are biblically warranted as we see in two clear scriptural examples. Though other arguments are available, these are quite potent.

In building a case for national borders, Dr. Gentry starts in Genesis and then briefly discusses the Law and historical books primarily.

Any discussion of the necessity of national borders must start with a REAL definition of Nation, which comes from the word natal, meaning: of the same womb/lineage. A proper definition includes a common language, customs, and, most importantly, common religion.

Briefly, distinct religions won’t coexist. They can’t. The Bible clarifies that conversion is necessary for an immigrating person to be accepted into a nation. This is actual assimilation. It’s even true for Christians today. To be a citizen of the Kingdom of God, you must first be converted by God, accepting Christ under the power of the Holy Spirit, or you are a trespasser in the kingdom of heaven; woe to you, for except you be born again, damnable is your end indeed (Matthew 18:3, John 3:3, others).

Not mentioned in the article is the fact that the Hebrews were a religious, ethnic, and linguistically unique people. And in the few instances where they weren’t, again, adherence to the religious Law (conversion) was required. A country is simply some distinct region or a land area.

Chapters 9-11 of Genesis detail the creation of Nations. In a longer form post, we could include the post-flood covenant through to the Tower of Babel. The covenant with every living creature and the rights of men are discussed here.

The author does an excellent job of taking complicated topics and making them accessible to the average Christian, and he keeps posts to a digestible size, something most appreciate. That’s probably one reason he doesn’t tackle the abovementioned points while offering only two clear instances from Scripture.

*This is a southernism. Sometimes it’s not, but we’re using it only as tongue in cheek. We deeply respect Dr. Gentry’s work.

This article was first seen at WRSA. Admittedly it’s a little lengthy, but it is peppered with truths, so it’s worth sharing. Dr. Baldwin of Liberty Fellowship has an article published at Lew Rockwell in which he elaborates his take on the article’s spiritual death portion(s). Pastor Baldwin blames the pastors of America’s churches. Indeed, they are at fault in many cases, but no believer gets off that easy; it’s your fault, dear brothers and sisters in Christ.

Kneissel [the author of a book on this topic], who is from Central Europe, makes it sound as if Europe is living in the past, before 1914, when it was politically central to the world, instead of being a more or less irrelevant political backwater as it is in 2022. What is certain is that the physical fall of an empire is always preceded by its spiritual fall. What did this spiritual fall consist of?

[…]

The extraordinary thing is the self-justification of the Western world for its own suicide and its refusal to admit that anything is wrong with it. On the contrary, only its ‘values’ of ‘freedom, democracy and human rights’ are correct and must therefore be spread throughout the ‘free world’. All who do not accept its ‘values’, which in fact are anti-values because they are destructive, not constructive like real values, must be mocked, slandered and, if necessary, bombed into submission. Today’s Western world is visibly coming to resemble medieval frescoes showing the torments of hell, which are what spiritual death is. The Western world has been demonised, the demons have been called up from the bowels of hell to occupy it and visibly and mockingly inflict its ‘Western values’.

Unless God is well pleased, He withdraws His blessings. YES, devils are very real and actually exist (I know, I’m repeating myself but do you understand?) and inhabit the workers of inequity at all levels and types within a society as the Lord allows. When the Lord allows, many more devils may begin to overwhelm a people. This is scriptural; the point is that evil abounds unto destruction.

The failure of the churches in the West is the root cause; doing nothing about abortion and supporting endless wars are two of the glaring sins. The article makes this point well. And without a very learned understanding of what God requires in His Law-word, separating the causes (sins) and results (evil abounding) is challenging. We’ll neither parse the article nor establish the Law here. But we know for certain that abortion and war without just cause are both murdering the innocent, of which particular sin is listed sixth in the top ten. And we’ll state that murder, by default, means that you have set other gods before you, for the one true and living God is the God of life and life eternal, the first commandment.

We’ll say plainly, only in Christ does salvation live for the individual, the marriage, the family, a church body, your town, county, state, and country. Nobody, and surely not a politician, is coming to save you.

I’ll set up an entirely hypothetical situation for you.

A potential buyer sees a used rifle that is a classic and cannot be obtained new (it’s no longer made).  It’s noted by the gunsmith to be in good or very good condition with only customary wear marks on the receiver and stock.  The exception mentioned is that there is a “patch” of corrosion in the barrel near the muzzle.

Brownells has a video up from years ago dealing with rust, mainly relying on solvent and brushing, with more work to be done by a gunsmith with bluing afterwards if necessary.

The 1911 forum also has some home remedies like use of lemon juice and water (which it is claimed doesn’t hurt the bluing).

Readers are welcome to weigh in on remedies for rust.  The price is reasonable.  In this hypothetical situation, should the buyer beware of the “patch” of corrosion beyond a certain point?  The rifle is noted by the seller to be still good for hunting and target shooting, so they don’t think the gun has reached a point where this patch is a problem.

There were too many useful reviews of gear and guns to make into individual posts, so they’re all dropped into this one.

Outdoor Life has a review entitled The Best Gun Belts of 2022.

All Outdoor has a review of the Mystery Ranch Three Day Assault Pack.  They like it, and so do I (from a distance).  I saw a SpecOps guy wearing it while taking my family biking in Virginia one time and stopped him and asked him about it.  He saw me eyeballing him and I didn’t even finish the question before he gave me an answer.  He especially liked the 3-Zip design that lets you get into the pack for needful items without emptying the pack.  But at $385 it’s a bit pricey for me.

Outdoor Life has an article on how quarter of a million dollar shotguns are made if you’re rich and that’s your thing.

This guy is yet another satisfied customer and user of the Beretta 1301 combat shotgun.

Shooting Illustrated has a review of the CZ 600 Alpha hunting rifle.  We’ve discussed this many times before.  The polymer furniture makes it capable of being in the rain or taking a bump or bruise without showing the damage, but the Walnut stocks are so pretty.

TFB: Don’t buy Turkish made shotguns.

SOFREP has a review of the Franchi Affinity 3 field shotgun.  Is it me or do shotgun manufacturers seem to be dovetailing into the same sort of external design as the Beretta A400, Benelli and Browning Maximus 2?  No, it’s not just me.  While some things will never change (Beretta is gas operated while Benelli is inertial), the external features are trending towards the same sort of smooth lines, large controls, large charging handle, Camo pattern wrap or Cerekote, etc.

Readers can add in the comments or discuss guns or gear you’d like to see discussed or reviewed.

He was always a putz anyway. Who needs him?

F&S.

A man in the ski town of Steamboat Springs, Colorado shot and killed a black bear that entered his home in the middle of the night. According to the Colorado Department of Parks and Wildlife (CPW), homeowner Ken Mauldin dispatched the bruin with a .40 caliber Glock handgun after it opened and walked through an exterior door.

“The door was unlocked, and it’s one of the older-style lever door handles. So, the bear pushed on that to get the door open,” CPW public information officer Rachel Gonzalez tells F&S. “[Mauldin] was alerted when his wife screamed. It was just after 2 a.m. when we received the incident notification.”

Three things pop into my mind.

First, this is yet another anecdote that justifies carry inside the home.

Second, this anecdote justifies closing and locking the door.

Third, that’s a lot of rounds.  Nine rounds to put this bear down.  This advocates for accuracy or high capacity, or preferably both.

Source.

A Texas judge has sided with a gun-rights lobby group that challenged a state law barring 18-to-20-year-olds in Texas from carrying a handgun outside the home.

US District Judge Mark T. Pittman, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, ruled Thursday the law violates the Second Amendment, guaranteeing the right to bear arms.

“The Second Amendment does not mention any sort of age restriction,” the judge wrote. “The Court thus concludes the plain text of the Second Amendment, as informed by Founding-Era history and tradition, covers the proposed course of conduct and permits law-abiding 18-to-20-year-olds to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home.”

The lobby group Firearms Policy Coalition sued the Texas Department of Public Safety for enforcing a law that prohibits those under 21 years of age from carrying a handgun outside their home, motor vehicle or watercraft. The group argued that young people under 21 had just as much right to bear arms in public as those who are older.

The founders discussed the carry of muskets on their walk to school and as a “constant companion during walks.”

FPC for the win!

Frankly I don’t think we’re even nine meals from anarchy.  If the situation deteriorates, most people know whether they’re prepared.  If they’re not, that’s when they become anarchists.