I’m not a medical professional (although I will cite one in particular), but one of my best buddies texted me to ask what I thought, so here it is.
Here’s what we know at the moment about Covid-19 (I won’t supply the copious URLs since you can find them yourself or have already studied them). Covid-19 is probably a weaponized virus. There is still speculation that the practice of keeping animals in close proximity that would not otherwise be that way has caused animal to animal to human transmission of mutated viruses, but in my opinion this is a least probable origin.
China sat on the information for too long to allow for containment and isolation of it, so the entire world is now dealing with it. It shows indications of behaving like HIV, inasmuch as the method of attachment to a cell involves a “hook,” and thus it is extremely hard to get rid of. Animals appear to be able to test “weak positive” for the virus, even if they are asymptomatic.
There is a risk of recurrence of the virus, so this has led to speculation that the virus isn’t really killed with treatment, lies dormant, and can reappear later (maybe not much later). Then again, it’s entirely possible these patients were released and declared well without really being well.
Two dozen “first responders” have been quarantined in Washington State. The problem with this was explained to me by my daughter, a health care provider (in surgery and emergency medicine). Health care providers see patients with HIV, TB and Hepatitis (and various other blood borne and airborne illnesses) all the time. One cannot isolate and contain without knowing that the patient has a disease. Diagnosis must precede isolation. Otherwise, it’s just the common cold. Covid-19 can be transmitted asymptomatically.
This particular virus has a transmission vector that makes it very contagious. It’s difficult to diagnose and contain prior to transmission of the virus to others. Moreover, my daughter is concerned about the level of understanding and training associated with this virus, as well as hospital procedures and equipment to deal with an epidemic. The CDC can say what they want – the hospitals in America are unqualified to deal with this, and there may be no way to deal with it without assuming that every patient who comes into the ER has this virus (an expensive, time- and labor-intensive process for which America doesn’t have the resources or personnel).
So there is much bad news. There is some good news too. While there won’t be a vaccine for this for a long time, it appears that anti-viral drugs (such as are used for HIV) are effective against this virus. Of course, that’s expensive. It would stretch the logistics chain to the breaking point, especially since all of our drugs are made in China. This is one effect of a global economy.
Here is a real time board (Johns Hopkins) of all Covid-19 cases, along with deaths. If you examine the plot at the lower right, it seems to be indicating (for cases in China), 1 – exp(-lambda * t) approach to an upper asymptote (saturation and approach to a maxima). I would like to see better correspondence before saying this, and I certainly don’t go on record with this analysis saying this. I’m paid for my analysis, and I’m getting nothing for this post.
Seeing approach to an upper asymptote would be a good thing, but it requires intensive, aggressive isolation and containment, including stay-at-home workers, travel restrictions, and absolute border controls.
As to how to prepare for this, it all depends on your perspective. If you believe this doesn’t even approach the deadliness or risk of the common cold or flu, there would be no preparation necessary except to wash your hands and cover your mouth when coughing. If you believe this is TEOTWAWKI, you won’t be able to do enough preparations.
Not that I’m some sort of expert, but I said I was posting this for a good friend. I don’t recommend anything beyond your usual preparations. Do you have guns and ammunition? You should anyway. Do you have freeze dried and canned foods, oatmeal and grits, and other things that are non-perishable? You should anyway. Do you have means to filter and purify water? You should anyway. Do you have batteries and multiple means of fire starter? You should anyway.
So if you’re just now beginning to think about being prepared, ask yourself why that’s the case.
I do have one very specific recommendation. Our buddy Matt Bracken stated that he had purchased “rubber gloves.” This is a good idea, but we need to be more specific than that. There is a big difference between Nitrile gloves, Butyl rubber gloves, Polyvinyl chloride gloves, and Latex gloves.
Nitrile gloves protect the skin well against nonpolar solvents. They offer good cut and abrasion resistance, and are often used in medical applications due to puncture resistance. They are ineffective against some polar solvents. Butyl rubber gloves are ineffective against nonpolar solvents but protect well against polar solvents. Polyvinyl Chloride gloves protect against water solutions, acids, some polar solvents and caustics, but not well against nonpolar solvents. Latex – natural rubber – is ineffective against nonpolar solvents, but offers good cut and abrasion resistance against water solutions and polar solvents.
This is all very complicated. If you’re not sure which you need, or what the risk is (water solution, acid, caustic, polar or nonpolar solvents), then look it up. If you can’t, double up on gloves to ensure protection against unknown agents. Nitrile gloves offer good puncture resistance. They are cheap, they can be found at your local hardware store, and they can be used in concert with other gloves to protect against most agents. Get some.
Also get breathing air protection. Be able to filter the air you breath. Very fine filtration media (HEPA filters would only be available for full face respirators SCBAs and are expensive), combined with charcoal filters is your best bet. By the way, activated charcoal filter fines are made in Sri Lanka by charcoaling green coconut shells. Consider logistics and location.